Paul Hosford: What will Liz Truss' leadership mean for Ireland?

Liz Truss arriving at the Conservative Campaign Headquarters in London, following the announcement that she is the new Conservative party leader, and will become the next Prime Minister. Picture: Victoria Jones/PA Wire

A new leader in the UK and, once again, we are forced to ask what it means both on and for this island?

That we are asking this about a fourth British leader since the Brexit vote in 2016 is a marker of the political instability which has dogged Westminster since the vote to leave the European Union.

This time, it is the Member of Parliament for South Norfolk who is under the Irish microscope, with questions abound over how she might handle the Northern Protocol and Anglo-Irish relations generally.

While Liz Truss's immediate inbox will face a number of daunting challenges including record-breaking inflation, Irish politicians are particularly keen to see her early pronouncements on the Northern Protocol Bill and will look to decipher whether she is minded to abandon the legislation and return to serious negotiations on the issues outstanding in relation to Northern imports.

Publicly, the Government stance has been welcoming of Ms Truss, though it is something of an open secret that ministers would have preferred Ms Truss's rival Rishi Sunak had won given his more conciliatory tone toward a reopening of negotiations with Brussels.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin said on Monday that he looked forward to working "together" with Ms Truss on shared interests, while Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney said that political leaders in Dublin and Brussels are "hopeful" Ms Truss will adopt a less strident stance on the protocol.

Scepticism

 Mr Coveney can be forgiven for some scepticism that Ms Truss may be a more willing negotiator, given that as British Foreign Secretary, she had angered the EU by tabling the domestic legislation in Westminster that would empower ministers to unilaterally scrap the arrangements that have created checks on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

Speaking to RTÉ, Mr Coveney made an appeal to the new Conservative leader's economic, rather than civic sensibilities, saying that with so much else ongoing, a trade war is not in anybody's interests.

"That can be avoided," he said.

"We all know that. There is a deal to be done here through sensible politics and pragmatism, we know what it looks like, in my view.

"What it takes now is political will to be able to make that happen between a new UK Government and a European Commission that is willing to reach out and show flexibility.”

Perceptions

Pragmatism is a word that comes up again and again in Dublin political circles where there is some fear that British leadership is more interested in English perception of the Brexit deal than it is the Irish realities. There is also suspicion that Ms Truss views her own relationship with Ireland through the lens of her relationship with Mr Coveney, which has never been particularly warm. She is viewed with trepidation by some in the Irish establishment due to comments that were perceived by some to be a threat to the Common Travel Area.

Irish sources are keen to point out that Ms Truss has not endeared herself across the continent and that the Irish view of her is not unique.

 In France, there was much made of her comments that "the jury is out" on whether President Emanuel Macron is "friend or foe". Sources point to the language of this statement, particularly, saying that it was surprising to hear such inflammatory remarks from someone aiming to nurture and build relations on the world stage.

Language aside, the EU-UK relationship and the future of the Brexit deal are currently largely dependent on whether Ms Truss pulls the "emergency brake" of Article 16 which would force the two sides back to the negotiating table but could prompt retaliation from the EU.

Restraint

It is this spectre which people in Dublin are hoping will force some restraint in London. In Dublin, there is hope that the British government looks at the mountain of challenges in a cost of living crisis, a sluggish economy and public services which are in need of major investments and decided that fighting on an additional front is just simply not worth the hassle.

On radio, Mr Coveney said that he was hopeful that Ms Truss won't trigger Article 16 and echoed a phrased used a number of times in recent months.

“I hope that Liz Truss will see that there is an opportunity and a space now over the next few months to try and reset relations, not just between Britain and Ireland, but between the UK and the EU more generally,” he said.

A reset of relations is what is hoped for in Dublin and Brussels and Paris and Berlin, but what will matter now is that is what is desired in London.