Donald Trump's 'Big Lie' still poses a threat to US democracy
It is worth looking back on how Trump’s actions as disinformer-in-chief fuelled political grievances and paranoia on the right and weaponised conspiracy theories about voter fraud in the lead-up to January 6. File photo: AP/Michael Wyke
Consider these two statements from William Barr, the attorney general for former US President Donald Trump.
In September 2020, he described the process of mail-in voting as “very open to fraud and coercion, reckless and dangerous.” More recently, Barr said Trump had become “detached from reality if he really believes this stuff,” setting himself in opposition to Trump's promotion of baseless election fraud theories.
What changed for Barr?
That second statement was given as part of Barr’s testimony presented to the congressional bipartisan committee investigating the riot at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and the president’s role in enabling the violent actions of the day.
The comments were notable as, while Barr eventually resigned one month after the November 2020 election over Trump’s persistent claims of voter fraud, he still praised the president when doing so and never spoke publicly about Trump’s aversion to reality. He wasn’t the only administration official to take this course.
For those of us who research disinformation, January 6 epitomises a high water mark for the existential challenge that these threats can pose to the safety, security and cohesion of society.
As the hearings continue, it is worth looking back on how Trump’s actions as disinformer-in-chief fuelled political grievances and paranoia on the right and weaponised conspiracy theories about voter fraud in the lead-up to January 6.
Perhaps more pressingly, it is worth looking forward to assess how the Big Lie continues to threaten US democracy.
The attempted insurrection represents the consequences of a long-seeded campaign of disinformation by a range of extremist groups and political activists. Their digital propaganda was disseminated and amplified across social media, enabled by whack-a-mole, reactive responses from the online platforms on which they organised and plotted their assault on the Capitol.
Prior to the November election, my colleagues and I tracked a small but influential cluster of online accounts belonging to right-wing activists and media figures close to Trump who were responsible for driving most of the narratives on social media claiming voter fraud was widespread in the US.
As November 2020 and January 2021 neared, once quite disparate groups and movements found common cause in supporting and promoting Trump’s voter fraud disinformation and could be found, in increasing numbers and visibility, demonstrating in support of these claims on the streets.
Right-wing extremists, anti-government militias, Christian right-wing figures, QAnon conspiracy theorists and those from conservative circles all bought into the claim that their country was being stolen from them and made the leap from online to offline in that crucial three-month period.
This convergence proved critical to bolstering the Big Lie movement, as outlined in our Long Road to the Capitol series at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a non-profit that researches disinformation, hate and extremism online.
In the first congressional hearing, investigators laid out evidence that points towards possible coordination between two such groups, the Proud Boys and the Oathkeepers, both influenced and motivated by their support for Trump, in later storming the Capitol.
Prior to this, in front of a crowd with many of these same groups, Trump detailed a long list of grievances against the media and other Republicans, as well as a litany of false claims about how the election had been rigged. After telling protesters to march to the Capitol, he said "We fight like hell. And if you don't fight like hell, you're not going to have a country anymore.”
US democracy lived to fight another day. But what of the threats going forward? In a podcast released after the opening congressional hearing, former Trump advisor Steve Bannon warned against any attempts to prosecute Trump. “Try to indict Donald J. Trump. We dare you. We’re winning in November and we’re going to impeach you.”
Across numerous battleground states, Trump has endorsed candidates seeking office in the upcoming midterm elections who are true believers and aim to be elected this coming November so that they can either try and decertify and overturn their state’s 2020 results or enact new legislation in the name of ‘election integrity’, restrict voting access and serve as the local mouthpiece for the Big Lie.
Along with state and national legislative positions, some are seeking office for roles that play an important part in the administration of elections. Take the battleground state of Michigan, where Trump has endorsed Kristina Karamo running for Secretary of State, a position that also operates as Michigan’s chief elections officer, and Matthew DePerno running for Attorney General, a position that serves as the state’s chief legal advisor and chief law enforcement officer.
This swing state could have substantial sway over how the presidential election is conducted in 2024 and Trump has endorsed two figures who have fallen for his lies and firmly believe the 2020 election was rigged against him. In Nevada, Republicans have chosen another voter fraud proponent, Jim Marchant, as their nominee for Secretary of State.
If Trump runs for president in 2024 and we see a rerun of the 2020 post-election scenario, the influence of such figures could be pivotal. Imagine Trump cries foul, calls the result illegitimate and pressures states with tight results, like Michigan or Nevada, to investigate and conduct audits to ‘find’ him enough votes, as he demanded from Georgia election officials in January 2021.
They rejected Trump’s demands but what would figures more aligned with Trump's worldview do? Michigan and Nevada are not the only battleground states facing this challenge. Add Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona to the mix, as well as others, and you have the potential for numerous events that could mark November 2020 as just the opening chapter in a larger constitutional crisis.
William Barr is not alone in expressing the view that he always believed Trump’s claims were bogus. As part of his testimony, his statements suggest that, at the time, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Senior Adviser Jared Kushner also acknowledged the President’s claims were delusional.
Nevertheless, they persisted. Even Trump’s daughter Ivanka expressed reservations about his beliefs and was quickly rebuked by her father, highlighting how not even family can stand in the way of Trump's commitment to the Big Lie.
These revelations make the committee’s investigation all the more compelling. There could be as many as eight live hearings, making this primetime viewing for a country still weighing up the impact of that day and those watching round-the-clock coverage from abroad.
Think of it as the political anorak’s version of the Johnny Depp and Amber Heard trial, though with fewer memes posted online and more memos passed between politicos in DC.
One thing is already clear. Trump’s lies forged a community united in their unquestioning belief that the election was rigged and they had to act to save their country, culminating in the events of January 6. What’s not clear is whether they have finished the job and that points to perhaps the most consequential threat of Trump’s disinformation.
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