Daniel McConnell: Martin's roadmap for reopening will be about personal responsibility
From lockdowns to reopenings, Micheál Martin has delivered 15 addresses on Ireland's response to Covid-19. His 16th, next Tuesday, will be crucial for the Irish public — and for the Taoiseach.
For the sixteenth time since taking office, Taoiseach Micheál Martin will address the nation next Tuesday to outline the roadmap for the remaining reopening of our country.
While each of those addresses has been significant, this is without question the most important speech he will give.
As we know, this plan will not just set out the next phase of the easing of restrictions. It will aim to set out a pathway for all of those businesses, still furloughed after 16 months, to return if they still exist.
This week will see a meeting of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) tomorrow ahead of a meeting of the Cabinet sub-committee on Covid on Friday. A meeting of the full Cabinet will then take place next Tuesday to sign off on the details of the plan ahead of Mr Martin’s address.
While much of the finer detail is not yet decided, we know a good deal of what we can expect.
We can forget about any kind of Boris Johnson-style ‘Freedom Day’ big-bang announcement as the plan for reopening will once again be on a phased basis.
The plan will, in the first instance, set out the importance of getting 1.5m school children and their teachers, back to the classrooms, and college students and staff back to campus.
Yesterday’s HSE report — which showed that just 4% of children aged under 18 contracted Covid-19 in Ireland last year — was seen as significant within the Government as a means to counter teacher concerns or any suggestion of schools not returning.
The study found that the proportion of close contacts of a confirmed case that later tested positive for Covid-19 was significantly lower in schools, compared to the general population.
The report’s authors, Dr Abigail Collins and Dr Kevin Kelleher, said that it was “reassuring” that case positivity among close contacts is low, despite high levels of community transmission at various times throughout the school year.
Also expected to feature in the early stages of the plan is the return of live music in a meaningful sense.
Scenes of large crowds near Croke Park at the All-Ireland hurling final on Sunday have helped to bring the issue to a head.
“There are anomalies like the live music entertainment sector which will be dealt with in the first batch,” one senior Government source has said.
Alongside the live music, other sectors to see early movement include indoor sports and the return of workers to the office.
As part of the plan which is being worked on, I have been told that a relaxation of the 2m social distancing rule will have to be included to ensure a viable model of work practices among vaccinated employees.
What is also clear is that the current restrictions model is to be replaced with one of guidelines with a large degree of personal responsibility.
The feeling is that people who have been through so much since March 2020 must see the benefit of record levels of vaccination uptake here in Ireland, which has been far slower in its reopening than many other countries.
What is also clear is that talk of a return to any kind of level 5 lockdown is “off the agenda” given the vaccination programme, but a rollout of booster vaccines for older and vulnerable people this winter will be “a key element” in avoiding any kind of a return to restrictions.
Despite media reporting in recent days of “tensions” re-emerging between our political leaders and their public health officials, sources across Government are insisting no such tensions are presently evident.
A great deal of encouragement within Cabinet was taken from comments by Prof Philip Nolan of Nphet on radio yesterday morning where he illustrated the value of the vaccine on case numbers.
“So, 19 out of 20 people that were admitted to ICU over the past several months had no vaccination or were partially vaccinated,” he said. "The vast majority were eligible for vaccination. We’re seeing an increase in the number of younger people, people under 45, mostly with underlying conditions."
Politically, this Government under Mr Martin has to date shown a deep reluctance to deviate from Nphet’s ultra-conservative stance on reopening.
Such a reluctance to deviate has been welcomed by many but has increasingly infuriated those left behind.
The stakes for Mr Martin, who is under considerable internal pressure within a tetchy Fianna Fáil, could not be higher. He must avoid any sense of confusion in his messaging and deliver a coherent plan that delivers a plan which is seen as fair, realistic and sensible.
He has to deliver a roadmap which will lead us out of restrictions entirely, which not only has societal implications but pressing economic ones too, with October’s budget looming large.
It is a tall order given the current mood music in the country, but not impossible.
He has taken succour in his slow and steady approach despite the loaded criticism from various quarters at times. This plan will be more of the same and will be an attempt to iron out many of the lingering inequalities that currently exist.
With his time as Taoiseach running short, Mr Martin has a golden opportunity to be brave and assert his authority over his shambling and chaotic coalition.
The stage, sir, is yours.
