Forget headlines about falling inflation - consumers must brace for more price hikes

The rate of inflation is dropping but fuel, food, beer, and mortgages are all continuing to rise in price

Diageo has already announced another 4 cent increase in the price of its pints, on the back of a 12 cent hike in February. Stock picture

In June, the European Central Bank announced that inflation in May had fallen to 6.1% from a high of 10.6% last October. In Ireland, the news — on paper at least — is better still. Inflation fell from 4.8% in June to 4.6% last month.

The bad news however is that we can expect a raft of price hikes in key areas over the coming weeks, even as the general rate of inflation eases off. Petrol, diesel, alcohol, streaming services, and transport services are just some of the things going up in price, which will put further pressure on hard-pressed households.

Daragh Cassidy of independent price comparison and switching site Bonkers.ie says that motorists will have to contend with the restoration of excise duty on petrol and diesel in September and October. Together, these will add 15 cent to a litre of petrol and 11 cent to a litre of diesel.

There will also be a €7.50 increase in the carbon tax in the October budget which will add around another 2 cent to a litre of petrol and diesel. Taken together, all of these hikes will add between €150 and €200 a year to the average driver’s fuel costs.

The carbon tax hike will hit consumers who heat their homes with fossil fuels, adding around €17 to the average annual gas bill and €19 to the fill of a 900-litre oil tank. This means households will soon be paying around €130 in carbon tax on their gas costs and around €142 in total for their oil.

As Mr Cassidy points out, however, there’s a possibility that the implementation of the carbon tax increase on home heating fuels may be deferred until next May.

Then there’s drink. Diageo has already announced another 4 cent increase in the price of its pints, on the back of a 12 cent hike in February.

“According to the CSO,” says Mr Cassidy, “food inflation is still running at over 10% a year, having hit a high of over 13% a few months ago. Prices are still rising month on month — just at a lower rate. However, Russia’s recent decision not to extend the Ukraine grain deal has stoked worries about global food supply chains and prices once again.”

Prices for grains and oilseeds have already risen in response to the news that Russia will suspend its participation in the deal. And this will likely lead to higher prices for staple items such as bread, cereals, and pasta over the coming months.

Daragh Cassidy: 'Although the general rate of inflation is expected to fall over the coming months this doesn’t mean prices will necessarily drop. It just means prices are increasing at a slower pace.'

Although bus and rail fares have fallen over the past year on the back of government action, last month, Bus Éireann hiked the price of its Expressway coach services by 5%.

The prices of internet subscription services are also trending higher. Spotify has announced that it’s hiking the cost of its individual and duo plans by €1 a month to €10.99 and €14.99 respectively.

Netflix raised its prices last year and doesn’t appear to have plans for further increases in the near term. However, the movie and TV streaming site has warned that it will begin clamping down on password sharing. The company has trialled this long-anticipated crackdown in multiple countries already, with launches in Canada, New Zealand, Spain and Portugal earlier this year.

By now, multiple Irish customers have received an email titled ‘An update on sharing between households’, reminding subscribers that a Netflix account is for use only by the account holder and the people who live with them in their household. It also suggests that those who want to share their account with someone who doesn’t live with them can buy ‘an extra member’ for €4.99 per month.

Clamping down on password sharing will of course mean that many will have to fork out for their own subscription, which starts at €8.99 a month, and which tallies to an extra €108 a year.

“The recent bad weather means many are probably thinking of booking a last-minute getaway,” says Mr Cassidy, “but airfares are up over 34% compared to last year and it appears the era of ultra-cheap travel is over — for good potentially.” 

He points out too that the inability — and, in some cases, refusal — of airlines to add capacity post-covid means many are still operating a reduced service. The Ukraine war has also closed parts of airspace in Europe, leading to overcrowding on certain routes and a consequent reduction in capacity by airlines. On top of that, lingering supply chain issues also mean that the manufacture and delivery of new aircraft has been curtailed.

All this, coupled with high demand as consumers prioritise experiences over material things, has put upward pressure on air fares. In addition, climate change-related weather events are expected to reduce the number of viable tourist destinations in the coming years, and scarcity never leads to a fall in prices.

“Although the general rate of inflation is expected to fall over the coming months, this doesn’t mean prices will necessarily drop,” says Daragh Cassidy.

It just means prices are increasing at a slower pace. This is a key point a lot of people don't get. Unless we see outright deflation, things aren’t getting any cheaper.

 This is a key point. The inflation rate may have fallen to 6.1% in June from 6.6% in May, but prices still rose by 0.8% over the month.

“And all forecasts are for prices to continue to increase over the next year or so in most sectors. So really the cost-of-living squeeze isn’t going to get much better.

“What’s more, gas and electricity prices remain at record highs. We’ve seen no price drops from any of the main suppliers this year. While I’m hopeful we might see some small decreases before the end of the year, it'll still leave our prices way, way above normal, and unmanageable for some people. 

"And we’re still not sure what energy supports the Government will provide this year.” 

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All of this is to say nothing of the interest rate hikes which are now in the process of feeding through into mortgage rates and payments. Over the past year, the ECB has hiked its main lending rate from 0% to 4.25%. Though Irish mortgage rates were slow to react, they’ve all been tracking higher in recent months.

Recent figures from the Irish Central Bank show that, in May, the average interest rate on a new mortgage in Ireland was 3.84%, up from 3.63% in April and just 2.69% at the end of last year. This means that rates are now at their highest level since mid 2017.