Juno McEnroe: It will be a sorry state of affairs if government deal can't be made

There have been many false dawns in the three-way coalition talks and a plethora of crises that have inevitably not collapsed the rolling negotiations.

As often quoted, this is senior hurling for politicians, where the best bluffs and negotiating ruses count. As reported in this newspaper, negotiators have walked to the edge on occasions during the at-times frayed talks, threatening blue murder unless certain political demands are met: Fianna Fáil have pushed for the pension age to be reduced to 66; the Green Party want a 7% annual cut to carbon emissions and Fine Gael are fighting to keep 'big business', the markets and rural Ireland happy.

As we reach the end game and an interregnum of some 124 days since the February 8 election, there is still the prospect that the talks could collapse.

So what happens then? There are a number of paths, depending on who you believe.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are adhering to the advice of the attorney general that we are now very much up against a deadline to form a government before laws that support the special criminal court and special garda powers expire at the end of June.

Furthermore, EU pandemic funding under the SURE scheme is needed here and will be drawn down by most member states in July.

These two issues form a 'hard deadline', it is suggested, for the coalition efforts to be done and dusted by the last week in June. The voting on a deal will take up to two weeks for all three parties, therein requiring the talks to be done this weekend so consultation with members and the vote processes can begin.

There are a number of alternative positions, if all doesn't go according to plan.

Talks can continue, thereby likely reducing time for members to debate and vote on any deal or other parties can look at trying to make up the numbers for a government.

This latter approach would likely involve Sinn Féin entering the fray. Mary Lou McDonald's party has left communication channels open with others.

The party's deputy leader in the Dáil leader Pearse Doherty confirmed to this paper that he had reached out to Green leader Eamon Ryan in recent days about a Plan B, if talks collapse.

“Yes to all parties that will talk to us,” he texted.

Labour equally haven't closed the door on coalition formations, although its membership might differ on that.

The role of the Independents hasn't been fully explored yet either if the Greens left the three-way talks.

The latter two big parties have 72 seats between them but need to form a government. Substituting the Greens 12 seats in a coalition with a swathe of Independents would be some ask, but some combinations could be explored.

Ultimately though, without Sinn Féin getting the help of Fianna Fáil to form a government, acting Taoiseach Leo Varadkar would most likely have to seek the dissolution of the Dáil from President Michael D Higgins.

Under Constitution article 13.2.2, the president has "absolute discretion" to agree to this, in the absence of the Taoiseach of the day enjoying a majority of support, thereby triggering an election.

Only twice before have such considerations been made, but never tested.

And while advisors in Áras an Uachtaráin are certain to be keeping a close eye on events, Mr Varadkar would need a very strong argument to ultimately seek fresh elections.

Parties in Leinster House say the coalition deal is almost 95% agreed. It would seem a sorry state of affairs if a remaining 5% difference could not be overcome and translated into a solid deal.