Micheál Martin must face up to the Casey conundrum

If Micheál Martin thought Mary Hanafin, Éamon Ó Cuív, and Bertie Ahern hanging around was bad, he may be about to get a foghorn-volume wake-up call as to what awkward really means, writes Fiachra Ó Cionnaith

Presidential runner-up Peter Casey’s claim that he will set up “new Fianna Fáil” unless he is given the keys to the party leader’s office follows in the footsteps of three other high-profile party affiliates who have given Martin repeated headaches in recent years.

First, it was Hanafin, who, after being warned by Martin not to run for Fianna Fáil in the 2014 local elections, predictably did whatever she wanted anyway and won a de facto party seat as an “independent”, before shoving her way onto the party’s 2016 general election ticket.

Then, it was ex-taoiseach Bertie Ahern, whose constant media flirtations on every subject from government formation to Brexit to “de Dubs” went hand in hand with repeated rumours from some unknown source that he may possibly like a stab at the presidency — in direct violation of Martin’s views.

And then, not to be outdone, long-time TD Ó Cuív joined the foray, firstly being the subject of similar summer calls to enter the presidential race (where on earth could the rumour have come from this time?) and then deciding to temporarily invade Northern Irish politics last week before a well-timed retreat.

In all cases, Martin gulped down his fury and, despite the chipping away at his leadership, chose to move on publicly while marking individuals cards in private.

While it still has the distinct impression of being little more than an amateurish PR stunt, Casey potentially poses a bigger risk to him than all three other mischief- makers combined.

Although no one with any influence in Fianna Fáil is seriously considering letting Casey set one foot in the party, the businessman’s sudden overtures are not irrelevant.

While Martin has gained cross-party plaudits for his considered positions on the referendum on the Eighth Amendment, Brexit, rowing in behind Michael D Higgins in the election, and even the confidence and supply pact with Fine Gael, it is unclear whether he is still speaking for the party’s grassroots.

Conservative TDs such as Bobby Aylward, John McGuinness, and Mary Butler have been increasingly banging that particular drum.

And with exit polls showing that one in three Fianna Fáil voters backed Casey, the drums are getting louder.

Given how Casey’s deeply controversial views on the Travelling community and welfare recipients are polar opposite to Martin’s well-stated views, the conundrum is not one easily solved.

As one commentator joked last night, should Casey actually put his political reputation where his mouth is, his new party’s name could be Fianna Fáil Nua, Fianna Fáil Arís, the rather buttery I Can’t Believe It’s Not Fianna Fáil (never mind Fine Gael), or just simply Fianna Fáil WTF.

There will be plenty who will say the potential new party is — just like Bertie for president, Ó Cuív for the Áras and Hanafin for, well, anywhere — little more than a short-term bank holiday media infatuation.

But that misses the point. Whatever ultimately happens, Peter Casey spells trouble for Micheál Martin. Just when he needs it least.