Surprisingly, oil price has had little effect on global growth

Oil-producing countries are feeling the strain, and energy investment has fallen, but the lower price has eased the finances of big importers such as India, writes Kenneth Rogoff

One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. Despite the collapse in prices, from over $115 per barrel in June 2014 to $45 at the end of November, most macroeconomic models suggest that the impact on global growth has been less than expected — perhaps 0.5% of global GDP.

The good news is that this welcome but modest effect on growth probably will not die out in 2016. The bad news is that low prices will place even greater strains on the main oil-exporting countries.