ESRI should ask: Why is everything in this country wrong?

QUOTE of the week has to go to economist John Fitzgerald who admitted when launching the new ESRI report that: “The one thing that is sure about this latest forecast is that it is wrong.”

At least someone in a position of authority has decided not to treat the rest of us as stupid, even if the move does go even further to undermine any residual confidence that anyone in charge of this country knows what they are actually doing.

After initially putting the frighteners on pensioners, the Government’s dysfunctional spin machine decided to try and bore everybody out of the pre-budget debate with numbers — along with a side helping of distraction via the spectacular own goal and political humiliation of managing to lose the once slam-dunk Seanad vote.

So, all the leaks have been about will it be €3.1, or €2.8, or even €2.7 in the billion euro adjustment needed, and then Wallop! — to coin a phrase — it emerged it is “only” going to be €2.54bn of misery heaped on us again this Tuesday. Hooray!

Which makes one think there was always a lot more money to play around with to begin with and a deeply cynical Coalition — which once promised the most transparent budgetary process ever — just toyed with those fretting about how to cope with the real hole another family allowance cut, or raid on disability benefit, would punch in their already over-stretched household.

But the loose financial cannon is once again Health Minister James Reilly whose inability to get control of the €13.4bn flowing into the HSE has cast a late shadow over the whole process.

Dr Reilly claims the mammoth over-run in his spending which now threatens to throw the budget further off balance is due to his commitment to meeting patient needs. A self-flattering reflection which must induce a deeply hollow laugh from the gravely ill people who have had their medical cards snatched from them in recent months.

The troika was so concerned about Dr Reilly’s failure to control his finances it demanded monthly reports from him in a pointed vote of no confidence in his abilities.

But then, as he is the only Cabinet minister ever to be named in the debtors’ sheet of shame The Stubbs Gazette, Dr Reilly has never had a lucky touch when it comes to money.

After initially putting pressure on Reilly to sort the mess out, Public Expenditure Minister Brendan Howlin now just adds to the confusion and sense of drift by announcing last week that Reilly was only €1m off target — however, it has since emerged that figure will probably be off course by some hundreds of millions.

Even without the bizarre situation of a Labour money minister trying to order a Fine Gael health minister to cut spending — something which may explain Labour’s collapse in the polls — the mess has been allowed to fester to an alarming degree.

As the foul-mouthed spin doctor extraordinaire from BBC’s The Thick Of It, Malcolm Tucker, might no doubt put it if he saw Reilly and Howlin approaching him: “Laurel and fucking Hardy! Glad you could join us. Did you manage to get that piano up the stairs OK?”

Reilly’s dicey digits are digging into the sudden “wriggle room” Michael Noonan just happened to find on the eve of the austerity announcement.

Some would argue that for wriggle room, we should read “rig-it” room, as the senior Coalition partner is prepared to let it look as if Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore has secured a rare win by bringing the “adjustment” — tax hikes and spending cuts — down to €2.54bn.

Thus the political narrative runs that the move will shore up Gilmore’s precarious position and prevent a leadership challenge from Joan Burton which, if successful, would have to logically climax in her pulling Labour out of Government.

It is telling that in the foyer of the Foreign Affairs Department there is a raft of flyers for drama productions in Dublin this winter, the most prominent being Houdini.

It is probably just a friendly way of showing how cosmopolitan the city is to visiting dignitaries, but it could also act as an intriguing cry for help from Mr Gilmore, who, like Houdini, must long to become a great escape artist — escaping the shadow of Joan and the downward pull of the polls.

The play is described as “darkly comic” in the blurb, but Labour TDs have been pushed to the brink of tears of anger by Ms Burton’s burning ambition which may explain talk of a recent peace summit between the two in which the Social Protection Minister has pledged to toe the line.

Well, peace until the expected Labour thrashing in next June’s local election, that is. Then all bets are off as Ms Bruton knows that would be her last chance to take the crown as she will be 67 at the next scheduled general election.

But Ms Burton has to get welfare through this budget first, and the bad news for her is that Enda is feeling “tough”.

While displaying the political intelligence and self-awareness of Marie Antoinette regarding the shameful withdrawal of medical cards from seriously needy children and adults, the Taoiseach, or Mr Wallop as he should now be known after the Seanad shambles, is also delusional in insisting the Cabinet is deciding “tough” decisions in this budget.

Snatching money from disabled teenagers and the blind — as this Government has proven so fond of doing in the past — is not a display of “toughness”, but merely bullying the weak who you know will not be able to hit back.

A real display of toughness would be a solidarity tax on those earning above €100,000, but that piece of social justice is about as likely as the blood splattered, bullet-strewn cat in Love/Hate starring in the next Whiskas advert.

And anyway, although Mr Kenny does not like us knowing, this is not a real budget, but merely a shadow budget that will not come into force when the Coalition sheep bleat their way through the voting lobbies next Tuesday night, but rather when faceless EU bureaucrats at the European Commission decide whether it fits into the post-fiscal treaty eurozone straight jacket or not next month.

A “tough” budget that only attacks the weak.

A draft budget that is not really a budget at all.

And a national outcry over a dead cat that is not even dead.

Maybe the next ESRI report should build on its commendable honesty and just cut through the air of farce and ask: “Why is everything in this country wrong?”