Shona Murray: Donald Trump’s dismissal of Nato could goad Russia into European incursion

Drones, GPS jamming, and other hybrid aggressions from Russia are putting Europe's eastern flank under renewed threat

Nato’s Mark Rutte condemned the Russian drone strike in Romania. But Donald Trump is signalling that US support may not be forthcoming if a fellow Nato member is attacked. File picture: Virginia Mayo/AP

Europe's eastern flank is under renewed threat. Drones, GPS jamming, and other hybrid aggression from Russia are stoking fears the Kremlin has mainland Europe in its sights again.

On Friday, Nato secretary general Mark Rutte strongly condemned the latest incident after a Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, a Nato member, during an overnight attack on Ukraine.

Labelling Russia's behaviour as “reckless” and “a danger to us all” he said the alliance is “ready to defend every inch” of its territory.

The drone was tracked by radar in Romanian airspace. It crashed onto the roof of a building in Galati, the defence ministry in Bucharest said. The impact was followed by a fire. Two people suffered minor injuries, and several people were evacuated.

According to the Press Association, Romanian military scrambled two F-16 fighter jets and a helicopter that were authorised to engage targets, and alert messages were sent to residents of the affected areas.

In recent weeks, Russia has managed to hijack Ukrainian drones sending them into Baltic and other states’ territories.

Lithuania has been forced to close its airspace causing major delays and cancellations of flights due to drone incursions. And, earlier this month, that country’s president and prime minister had to take shelter underground when a drone alert brought the city to a standstill.

Around the same time, the government of Latvia collapsed over the botched state response to similar drone incidents. Two drones crashed down in eastern Latvia resulting in the dismissal of the defence minister. Days later, prime minister Evika Silina resigned when her coalition partner pulled out of government triggering a state of chaos while the country — a former Soviet state, and Nato frontline country — struggled to respond to the drone situation.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen expressed EU solidarity with Baltic states with a visit to Vilnius. File picture: Pascal Bastien/AP

In a display of unity and solidarity with Baltic countries this week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen visited Vilnius. Standing alongside Lithuania’s president Gitanas Nauseda, she said the increased spate of drones entering EU airspace was a “deliberate” attempt by Russia to intimidate and divide Europe. Ms von der Leyen said: 

This is a deliberate strategy from Russia trying to destabilise our democratic societies. 

The two were joined by the Estonian and Latvian presidents, Alar Karis and Edgars Rinkevics.

“When Baltic states are being tested, Europe as a whole is being tested,” Ms von der Leyen told journalists in a press conference.

This moment comes at a time when the US is in the process of withdrawing from its crucial role at Nato as a guarantor of European security in times of war or invasion.

The only winner in this scenario is the Kremlin. Because, as Europe is forced to reinvent itself, albeit slowly — as self-sufficient in managing its own security — the reliance on the US as a global power is diminishing.

US voters chose Trump again

Moreover, the damage done from the contempt which US president Donald Trump has dished out to his European allies as well as Canada will be largely irretrievable. 

No longer can Europe see this Trump, especially a Trump 2.0 administration, as an aberration. 

It’s the second time Americans have voted in favour of an ‘America First’ ticket, with full comprehension — at least within the Republican Party — of Trump’s and his vice president JD Vance’s predilection towards humiliating rhetoric and hostile action against its closest partners.

In the interim, Europe is vulnerable. 

In April, triggered this time by Nato countries’ refusal to join the US-Israel war in Iran, Trump derided Europeans as “cowards” who failed to come to his aid in a war for which they were not consulted, and had no obligation to join. 

Nato members are not required to participate in an offensive operation outside of Nato territory. When leaders pointed this out, it angered Trump more and he announced he was pulling 5,000 troops from Germany.

Trump rant on Truth Social 

“COWARDS,” he posted on his Truth Social platform. “[W]e will REMEMBER!” “Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military manoeuvre that is the single reason for the high oil prices.”

And, as the war continues, and energy prices continue to skyrocket, it’s highly possible the White House is ready to dish out more punishment to Europe, in order to distract from the disastrous misadventure in the Gulf.

Weeks later, the US is now telling Nato that vital capabilities available to the alliance in times of war, attack, or invasion will no longer be within reach. This is so, even if Russia were to invade one of the Baltic states or another part of Europe or Canada.

Effectively, Trump is goading Putin to use the opportunity of a rogue US administration to test Article 5 of Nato — an attack on one is an attack on all. If Putin were to start an incursion into Estonia or another small Baltic state, would the US rush to assist? Given his clear contempt for Europe, unlikely.

The EU has redirected €1.5bn from the cohesion fund directly to Baltic defence preparedness and border surveillance, alongside making €12bn in Security Action for Europe defence loans available to the region. It is an important move to protect the continent.

“Member states facing such threats should be able to count on European solidarity,” said Ms Ursula von der Leyen.

Let’s hope Europe, and in particular, neutral countries like Ireland which are geographically fortunate enough to be away from the direct ongoing Russian interference, recognise the need for solidarity. And acknowledge that as a weak link on Europe’s periphery we are not impenetrable to similar targeting.