Daniel McConnell: Martin is striding away from past strife with an eye on the future
Micheál Martin seemed to be dogged by misfortune — losing not one but two agriculture minister for instance — but his slow and steady style appears to be paying dividends. File picture
Politics is such a fluid entity.
You can be up one minute and down the next.
On Thursday, Taoiseach Micheál Martin did a radio interview with Claire Byrne on RTÉ. As you would expect, she asked him about his impending move out of the Taoiseach’s office and what will happen after that.
At the end, when Byrne asked Martin was it his intention to lead his party into the next general election, he stated clearly that he would. Now, he has been consistent in his answers on that question since becoming Taoiseach, so you may ask what’s the big deal about him saying it now.
The big change is that when Martin said it a year ago, nobody believed him. Now, he is odds-on to deliver on his promise, if that is his wish, when the time actually comes.
In the early days of this government in 2020, Martin looked like a most unlucky general. His party’s poll ratings nosedived on taking office and are now only starting to revive.
He lost not one but two agriculture ministers in a space of seven weeks.
His own troops were bitching about him constantly and briefing against him, particularly over his choice of health and education ministers.
He as leader struggled to control the narrative not only around Covid-19 but even over basic fundamental political matters.
It was a torrid start to his tenure, which he also knew would only last two and a half years.
While Micheál Martin floundered, Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael thrived, still riding high from the strong public support they got in the early stages of the pandemic. Martin drove his troops round the bend with his slow and steady approach and it seemed the public were not buying it either.
The chaos around December 2020 and the opening up of society, only to reverse into a savagely long and painful lockdown, was perhaps his lowest ebb.
But now, in early April 2022, things have changed, changed utterly.
Varadkar and his party have slumped to historic lows in the polls, and while Fianna Fáil remains behind them, the gap has narrowed significantly and Fianna Fáil under a far steadier Martin are building some momentum.
Martin, as leader, has enjoyed a prolonged spell of relative calm and his own previously disgruntled backbenches are becalmed. For now.
He, too, got a good deal of sympathy on foot of the fact he missed out on meeting US president Joe Biden in person on St Patrick’s Day, having contracted Covid on the eve of that meeting in Washington.
What many in his own party have begun to say is that his steady leadership of the country is paying off. His approach, less spin-driven than Varadkar’s, has been shown to be one of substance rather than style.
Several people have used the tortoise and the hare analogy to describe the dynamic between Martin and Varadkar and, as things stand now, you can see why.
It was significant last weekend to see Barry Cowen, one of the fallen agriculture ministers, speaking about how the much-talked heave against Martin is off.
Reflecting the reality that no one is prepared to risk taking Martin out, Cowen told the Irish Mail on Sunday his leader is safe and heir apparent Jim O’Callaghan has “lost ground” since the disastrous Dublin Bay South by-election, where the party took less than 5% of the vote.
Personally, Martin looks far more comfortable in his own skin as Taoiseach.
His recent appearance on comedian Doireann Garrihy’s podcast, was an unusual adventure for him, but he was able to convey a far lighter side to his personality than he normally does.
Now, I am not saying he is a changed man. ‘Muinteoir Micheál’ is never too far away and his cautious approach highly frustrates many in Cabinet.
But he is far more secure now in his position than at any time since became leader of Fianna Fáil in early 2011.
So, he is odds-on now to become Tánaiste in December when Varadkar is expected to reclaim the Taoiseach’s office for a second time.
All of that raises a host of interesting questions such as what portfolio will he take over.
He is unlikely to do a direct swap with Varadkar in the Department of Enterprise, as he is a former minister in that department.
So, with Varadkar now in the Taoiseach’s office, Martin would need a new department and some in government have speculated that he would take over in the Department of Higher Education, one he set up in 2020 in order to cement his legacy.
As Simon Harris has found out, the advantage of moving to that department is that he would have a comparatively light workload, allowing him to concentrate on rebuilding the party ahead of the election in a way he is simply not able to do now.
However, as the changeover of office is the point at which a wider reshuffle will happen, other scenarios are possible. Martin will have to replenish his Cabinet line-up and that means someone will have to be axed.
When you look at the Fianna Fáil ministerial line-up, it is hard to look beyond Health Minister Stephen Donnelly as the most likely to be demoted, senior sources say.
Again with his eye on his legacy, could Martin be willing to step back into health for a final spin? Stranger things have happened.
Wherever he ends up, it may only be for a short time, if what I am being told comes to fruition.
In 2024, Ireland will have to select a new EU commissioner and, crucially, under the deal which saw the Government formed in 2020, Fianna Fáil will have the choice as to who will land “the plum job in Brussels” as Charlie McCreevy famously described it.
While it is some ways off, Martin has emerged as the early favourite to be given the nod.
Such a scenario has several advantages. Primarily, it would solve the Fianna Fáil leadership issue without the need for bloodshed. Such a timescale would allow potential candidates to replace him — say O’Callaghan, Michael McGrath, and Darragh O’Brien — get their campaigns together for whatever contest may happen. In addition, with a defined timescale, much of the drama that dogged Enda Kenny in his final year would be absent.
For Martin, it would allow him depart the stage of national politics gracefully and finish his career on a high.
Also, given he would be a former prime minister in the job, he would automatically be in the running for a top-tier position within the Commission.
There could be far worse ways to end a career.
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