Dull campaign with extraordinary parts to make for dolly mixture Dáil

There appears to be a certain overall illogicality at play here that simply defies explanation, writes Alison O’Connor

t has been a largely unexciting general election campaign, but that does not mean there have not been some extraordinary elements to it. The chief one is how difficult Fine Gaelers have made it for people to cast a vote for them.

The party knew entering this campaign that voters going to the polls with the intention of favouring a Fine Gael or Labour candidate would not be doing so with a song in their hearts. It was going to be what I have previously called a “cod liver oil vote”, where those giving them the stroke would do so while holding their nose.

Generally in human interaction where you realise that you are not flavour of the month, but you want the other person to like you, you modify your behaviour accordingly and adopt a possibly more humble, indeed likeable style. You don’t need a focus group to tell you that, or a highly paid foreign election adviser.

The Tánaiste has responded to the Taoiseach's 'whingers' comment https://t.co/K2Trd0BMen pic.twitter.com/t7fFQSXimT

— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) February 22, 2016

I’ve seen it said in recent days that some sections of the media have been somehow remiss in encouraging Government politicians to resist using the fiscal space term. It was characterised as some journalists being too lazy to bother to understanding it. On the contrary, my issue was always with the term itself and not the concept. The lofty bandying about of such phrases, without an explanation for people listening of what exactly they mean, is where my objection lay. At the beginning of the campaign, Fine Gael was using it like a comfort blanket and a weapon all rolled into one. It significantly contributed to them looking smug.

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There was a distinct lack of emotional intelligence in touting a recovery which has certainly taken place in some of our cities, but not reached many other areas of the country. I haven’t been to Castlebar lately, the home of the “whingers”, but from what I’ve heard, similar to many other county towns, you just need to stroll down the street there to see how the recession hit in terms of closed businesses. The point being, that this is on Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s doorstep.

But even for the urban folk who have felt the warmer winds of recovery, the cruel days of austerity remain fresh in the memory. They too listened to the mixed Fine Gael message of how fiscally responsible the party had been to bring about economic recovery, yet they were pledging to embark on what Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin described as the most expensive election campaign pledge in history –— the €4bn plan to scrap USC.

Which brings us neatly around to the stupendous campaign mounted by the Fianna Fáil leader and his near Teflon quality throughout. Fianna Fáil are past masters at looking into the hearts of the Irish voter and seeing what it is they want to hear. They have perfected this skill over decades. Unlike Fine Gael, they realised what message needed to be put out there to soothe the battered national psyche. In doing so, they have managed to make people feel better about themselves for warming to the “fairness” bit. The messaging made it easier to return to the Fianna Fáil fold without shame.

The Taoiseach has been forced to apologise for his 'whingers' remark https://t.co/gZKgB9tWmm pic.twitter.com/xsBivplrXL

— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) February 22, 2016

Once it became clear that the Micheál Martin campaign was taking off, and it did all centre around the Corkman, the party machine, although much depleted after 2011, seemed to swing into action. His party frontbench, best known for sniping at their leader and wanting to depose him, has provided good support in managing to best Fine Gael ministers in many of the radio and television debates of the past week or so. The native cunning of the Fianna Fáil corner boys bested the hubristic Fine Gaelers.

We won’t know until tomorrow how successful it has been, but as a result of the warm reception Micheál Martin has received all over the country, you can only conclude that Irish people have the memory of goldfish. Is 5 years, and economic ruin, really all that long ago?

On the Sinn Féin front, the question really is how long can party discipline be maintained after a very poor campaign by leader Gerry Adams. They will still return with a significantly increased parliamentary party, but it might have been even better with Mary Lou McDonald or Pearse Doherty at the helm. What they say is that the more media people say Adams is past his best, the more they dig their heels in to keep him.

It’s been a good campaign for the Social Democrats. They had a good foundation, what with the excellent work done by Catherine Murphy in the Dáil on the Siteserv deal and other issues. Róisín Shortall is recognised as a conviction politician, and the decision by the two of them to allow Stephen Donnelly to front the debate in Limerick for the Soc Dems was a very smart one. Similarly, Richard Boyd Barrett of the AAA/PBP managed to connect and possibly drove people to find out more of what was on offer. Hard to say though how many would have been attracted by their policy platform if they hadn’t already joined up as a result of the anti-water charges campaign.

It’s a more mixed bag for Lucinda’s Creighton’s Renua which has a narrower appeal. The leader has faced a tough personal fight in her constituency of Dublin Bay South and there are some doubts about her re-election.

The polls are showing a good outing for independents today but it would take a crystal ball to work out just how well they will do. It is almost impossible to imagine the melee of 30 or so non party deputies in Leinster House, but this fracturing of the vote would give no better illustration of the disenchantment with the status quo. That in turn is a contradiction of the apparent Fianna Fáil success, but there appears to be a certain overall illogicality at play here that simply defies explanation.

Finally, there is Labour. It is hard on a human level not to feel sorry for them. However, those of us who sympathise would appear to be in a minority. As a party, they attract far more anger than enthusiasm. One of the conversations I remember from the campaign was with a Fine Gael minister discussing interaction on the doorsteps with Labour supporters: “My God but those Labour people are such an incredibly unforgiving bunch,” was the observation.

It's all to play for as Election 2016 campaigns enter their final days https://t.co/qJKrzBNKHd (DOD) #GE16 pic.twitter.com/7lsAXaI5Wh

— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) February 22, 2016

The best that can be said about the Labour campaign is that it could have been worse; in terms of there not being any outright disasters, or breaking of ranks, despite the outright fear that exists among candidates at what sort of a massacre the party is facing. Somehow, deputy leader Alan Kelly was reined in after bringing about some fairly unfavourable headlines on his lust for power and being is own boss, in the opening days. It would be very difficult to see how he would be elected leader now in the event that Joan Burton either loses her seat, has to stand down or both.

As the campaign neared conclusion yesterday, Fine Gael was claiming that it’s more refined and humility-laced message of financial stability was actually beginning to hit home. Who knows? However from this vantage point, the possible/likely result of today’s vote — looking distinctly like a dolly mixturish Dáil — is enough to induce a migraine in terms of working out just how the next Government might be formed.

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