Forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt

Last year you gave us the benefit of Mr Ken Ring’s dire outlook for the coming winter — lots of snow, temperatures plummeting to 10 degrees etc — none of which materialised.

This year it’s the turn of the latest long-range weather ‘expert’, Mr James Madden of the scientific-sounding ‘Eaxacta Forecasting’ (Irish Examiner October 30, 2014).

The style and content is all too similiar to that of Mr Ring.

Well, once again, we’ve managed to survive November and December without any heavy snowfall or ‘Arctic freezes’.

Familiar too are the evasions and contradictions which Mr Madden throws into his’ forecast’.

Early on, he predicts December “could be as bitter as four years ago, the coldest in over 100 years”, but towards the end he adds the get-out clause — “the alternative and slightly more unfavourable scenario could see a winter on a similar par to the winter of 2012/2013”.

So there you have it — it may be a the worst winter ever or, then again, it may not.

Unfortunately most people take this rubbish at face value when it is published by a national newspaper.

Richard Cotter

Duntahane

Fermoy

Co Cork