Electoral advance of Sinn Féin will be a painful blow to Fine Gael

THE appalling vista for Fine Gael is that the ultimate outcome of the debacle involving Alan Shatter, Martin Callinan and An Garda Síochána will be that it allows Sinn Féin to make its most significant, strategic electoral gains yet in the Republic. Compared to the rise of Sinn Féin, the reputational decline of Shatter is small stuff.

If Fine Gael stands for anything, it stands against the Provos. That is the central pillar of its self-identity. Reflecting out of the mirror it gazes into, which is not mist-free, is an idealised landscape of public decency separating it from Fianna Fáil. A bastion against the shenanigans of that party and the recently disavowed terrorism of Sinn Féin-IRA, Fine Gael believes it stands not only for public decency but for public safety as well. Now it is suffocating in a mess of its own making. It is not pleasant, especially when that mess is An Garda Síochána, the organ of the State it historically identifies with most closely.

With just over seven weeks to go to local and European elections, The Sunday Business Post/Red C opinion poll predicted a quantum leap in Sinn Féin support to 21%. That poll could be peaking the party too soon. Sinn Féin have historically failed to deliver electorally on opinion poll predictions and, in any event, the cause and effect between Shatter and Sinn Féin is tenuous. But if even half the gains promised in opinion polls for Sinn Féin are realised, it potentially changes everything for Fine Gael.