Putin’s warning to Russia’s neighbours

Europeans, not least European Russians and the citizens of Ukraine, were right to tremble at the sight of Russian tanks and warships rolling into Crimea and the Black Sea.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea has all the hallmarks of territorial incursions in the past that shattered the peace of Europe and sent countries teetering on the brink of warfare. This need not have happened. Ever since the break-up of the Soviet Union, strict accords were agreed between Russia and Ukraine to protect Russia’s geopolitical interests in the Crimea. Vladimir Putin’s Russia had nothing to fear from the creeping democracy that toppled Yanukovich’s government in Ukraine. Neither was the invasion of Crimea about protecting Russian geo-strategic interests in the Black Sea. The fragmentation of Ukraine through the forceful annexation of Crimea is Putin’s way of punishing opponents in a country he still considers his own private political arena. The broad alliance of citizens that toppled Yanukovich’s corrupt regime was never party to any Western conspiracy to threaten Russian interests in Ukraine. The citizens of Kiev who rebelled against that regime simply wanted an end to a corrupt government they could no longer tolerate.

Three groups stand to gain from the Russian invasion and forceful annexation of Crimea. The first includes Putin’s most loyal supporters inside and outside the Russian homeland, namely Russian nationalists who are still hurting from the break-up of the USSR. They now wish to literally roll forward the borders of modern Russia. The second group includes the Russian majority in Crimea who now have the protection of Mother Russia in this corner of Ukraine. The third group includes those in the West, particularly in the United States, who have vested interests in the perpetuation of an East-West divide and wish to see a return to Cold War politics.