Ireland may be neutral, but it can help get Libya on the right road to freedom
For 42 years, Colonel Gaddafi subjected his country to personalised brutality and some of the weirdest dress sense of any political leader outside of the Marvel Universe. He also has, or had, the blood of many innocent Irish, British and American people on his hands through his sponsorship of the IRA and the Lockerbie bombers.
Although Gaddafi’s bizarre regime was running out of ideological steam long before the so-called Arab Spring, the fact that he has not been able to hand on the reins of power to one of his sons, as happened in North Korea and Syria, is a very good thing.
Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore’s statement welcoming developments positively fizzled with excitement at the collapse of Gaddafi’s authority: “I watched the hope and emotion as the pace of events quickened and the rebels surged towards and entered Tripoli, and the population celebrated… we can hope now that the Libyan revolution can be brought quickly to a successful end with the minimum of bloodshed.”
This is what economists call “free riding” because it goes without saying that Ireland, unlike some other small, rich nations like Norway, Belgium, Qatar and Denmark, played no part whatsoever in bringing about this happy conclusion. Money was provided to help evacuate tender souls and Irish Aid sent some tents and blankets. And that was it.
Fine, Ireland is militarily neutral and that position probably has overwhelming popular support but it’s worth reminding ourselves, given the history, that we did have a dog in this race, unlike the Norwegians and the Danes. A bit more moral support and some cash so that other nations can fight our wars would not go amiss. Ireland’s not the only place going through hard times and sometimes neutrality gets stretched to the point of copping out.
If the position was that Department of Foreign Affairs saw serious dangers in the situation going forward then the position might be more understandable. Benghazi, the centre of the uprising, has a record as being something of hotbed of Islamic militancy. But, no, on the contrary, we seem to think what were the rebels are entirely benign. As Gilmore puts it: “The Libyan National Transitional Council (TNC) is now the only authority in Libya, and I hope they will quickly be able to establish an effective government over the whole country. I have met their representatives, and was impressed by their vision of an inclusive and democratic future for all Libyans, and the thought-out plans they had for achieving it.”
Let’s hope that is correct. Now, I have no problem with Eamon Gilmore — far from it. He did, after all, have the decency to throw in a jibe about the president of Syria — a far greater threat to world peace than Gaddafi. But the ideological space in which all Irish foreign ministers operate is pretty limited. The image Ireland projects internationally is still one of a poor country without the means to back up positions, the real reason Éamon de Valera took us down the path of neutrality in the first place.
Gilmore says Ireland will be helping Libya in every way possible with reconstruction and development. Let’s hope that is the case and not just rhetoric because constructing an Arab society that works out of the rubble of Gaddafi’s insane Green Book and personalised kleptocracy is going to be a task of historic proportions.
It would not do to be too starry-eyed about the TNC. It is a very diverse, not to say peculiar, mixture. From former Gaddafi acolytes to the middle classes sick of living under his tyranny to tribal bands, various Libyan actors have joined forces to try to change the nature of their country, politically organising themselves under the TNC umbrella. As well as being heavily influenced by former Gaddafi henchmen who defected, it also contains Libyan businessmen who were living in exile, many in America. There are former ambassadors and security chiefs and professional people from civilian Libyan life involved, but their firepower comes from Islamist militias.
The divisions within the TNC were demonstrated by the murder a few weeks ago of General Abdel Fatah Younis, another Gaddafi security defector and ostensibly the rebels’ military head.
Libya could go in several directions now. Compared to Egypt, and indeed to most of even the Arab world, Libya lacks significant national institutions. Its military was weak and divided, organised partly along clan lines, its key posts occupied by Gaddafi’s family, and oriented towards repressing internal dissent.
Libya is also naturally prone to tribal and regional divisions. The TNC is committed to getting an interim administration in place as quickly as possible and then holding a national election. Although Libyans are utterly inexperienced in free elections, this should happen in months rather than years. Above all, the new government needs legitimacy.
Al-Qaida and affiliated Islamist movements have had considerable success in recruiting Libyans, and will contest the country. You can add to this the almost certain meddling that will take place from Libya’s neighbours, as well as the inevitable emergence of organised crime. And the history suggests that these moments of euphoria in the Middle East and the Arab world can ever so soon turn out to be misguided. Plenty of good socialists thought the Iranian revolution heralded a bright new dawn. Ayatollah Khomeini couldn’t be serious about turning such a prosperous and progressive place into an Islamic state, could he? Oh, yes, he could.
THE verdict is still out on the overthrow of the admittedly horribly corrupt Hosni Mubarak regime but recent events scarcely point to an easing of tension in the region.
It is true that had Gaddafi been able to proceed with his plans, we could have seen a massacre. But it is also true that there was considerable mission creep on the part of NATO and others — from protecting lives to actively assisting in Gaddafi’s removal. The new “regents” in Libya who will be overseeing the transition – Jordan, Qatar and the UAE — are all themselves dictatorships of a certain kind.
What chance, therefore, that something entirely benign will emerge in Gaddafi’s place? So, let’s hope for the best but prepare for the worst. One thing Ireland could usefully do is champion Libya’s access to foreign markets. The country’s best chance of avoiding a descent into Islamist obscurantism and aggression will come if ordinary Libyans see improvements in their daily lives.
The revolutions in Eastern Europe were very largely successful and in every way desirable not just because most of those countries had an historical memory of self-government and democracy but because the EU was very clear that respect for human rights would be rewarded.
If Irish neutrality means something it should mean leading the fight against the tariffs which stop imports from North Africa and keep those countries poor. Geographically far removed and with no colonial ties to complicate matters, we have no reason to argue for free trade with Libya other than that it is the right thing to do. So let’s do it.
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