Pandemic fears - Anxiety will not defeat flu threat

IN this, the Great Age of Anxiety, hard-core pessimists or even high-handicap worriers have more than enough calamities, imagined or otherwise, to fuel their agitation.

The possibility of fretting and fidgeting gloomily 24/7 is very real and anyone who fancies a bit of introverted angst is spoilt for choice.

If it’s not the economy or job security it might well be the prospect of a flu pandemic or peak oil. It could be rising sea levels or disappearing bees. It might even be negative equity or Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s volatile disposition. The options for despair are almost limitless.

The rest of us just would settle for even a smidgen of certainty but in these days of toppling citadels, floundering Government and fallen bankers we’ll settle for even a decent degree of probability.

In that context it is not in anyway reckless to believe that we, through our health service and personal responsibility, are well prepared to meet any threat presented by the prospect of a swine flu pandemic.

Even though 11 countries had – yesterday afternoon – confirmed cases of swine flu, or H1N1 in its new coat, with the Netherlands the latest to join the list. A further 17 countries, including Ireland are checking possible cases.

In the face of this escalation it is entirely sensible to consider the real scale of the treat and how it compares to the normal death toll from flu.

Normal seasonal flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people around the globe most years. About 36,000 of these people die in the United States. Best estimates for Ireland are that between 300 and 400 people die each year from flu and attendant complications.

Swine flu has not made anything like that kind of impact even if you break the figures down to relevant time frames.

The World Health Organisation and flu experts say they do not yet know enough about the new strain to say how deadly it is, how far it might spread and how long a pandemic might last. This suggests a calm and organised response is needed rather than panic or, the other and usual extreme, complacency.

There seems to be something deep in our psych that needs an enemy at the gates, a threat from the outside. We seem enlivened by the prospect of disaster or chaos. This is a trait that often distracts our attention from the real issues of the day.

David Nabarro, director of the United Nations’ avian flu programme, speaking at a 2006 flu conference asked a pertinent and difficult question.

He wondered why we spend so much trying to defend ourselves from terrorism or natural disasters but so little defending ourselves from animal disease.

“The major threat to human life isn’t Al Qaeda or hurricanes, but bugs in the animal kingdom,” warned Mr Nabarro.

We’ve had all sorts of animal disease and welfare issues brought about by the industrial production of food yet the last two international health scares – avian and swine flu – came from intensive or third world farms.

Unless we are prepared to move away from the consumption of industrialised meat it is likely that these concerns will recur time and time again.

We can either see this as a threat or an opportunity. We should see it as an opportunity for Ireland to live up to its image as a clean and safe place to produce food and for us to become Europe’s source of safe, reliable food produced in an honourable and ethical way.

The project has such great potential that if realised it would make being a pessimist challenging once again.