Obama could pay a high price if he fails to put Hillary on the ticket

WINNING the Democratic nomination for president is now just a formality for Barrack Obama, and the smear tactics are already in full swing.

This week the New Yorker magazine, which has the reputation of being liberal, came out with a cartoon of Obama and his wife on the cover. They are in the Oval Office, with her looking like a latter-day Angela Davis toting a rifle while he is in eastern Muslim dress.

In the background there is a picture of Osama bin Laden over the fireplace and there is an American flag burning in the fire. The Americans may be tolerant about lots of things, but not burning the flag. The cartoon cover has provoked a firestorm of criticism, but as Al Jolson used to say, “you ain’t seen nuttin yet”.

This may be a foretaste of the kind of negative ads that were used against John Kerry in 2004 by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. They denounced him for betraying colleagues because he testified against the Vietnam war before a congressional committee.

At the Democratic convention, Kerry began by giving a military salute saying he was reporting for duty. It was a snide way of contrasting himself with Bush who had essentially avoided real military service by joining the National Guard. In effect, Kerry was suggesting that he was proud of his service in Vietnam.

But when he returned from Vietnam, he had testified before Congress against the war and recalled some horrific stories of the conflict told by fellow soldiers. He talked of men raping Vietnamese women and torturing Vietcong and cutting off body parts.

He said the entire world knew that American involvement was a mistake.

“How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?” Kerry asked the Senate Foreign Relation Committee on April 22, 1971. “We are trying to do that, and we are doing it with thousands of rationalisations.”

When he ran for president, however, he seemed to be suggesting that he was proud of his service, yet ashamed of what they had done. He was trying to have it both ways and in the process alienated people on both sides of the Vietnam argument.

Back in April, in this column, I mentioned that Obama was not known well enough to discredit the kind of lies that were likely to be told about him if he won the nomination. “By the time the November election comes around,” I wrote, “some people would not know if his name is Obama or Osama, or whether he is a Christian or a Muslim, a pluralist or a racist.” For what it is worth, I think religion could play an even bigger role than race in the coming election. Obama says he is a Christian. His Muslim links are very tenuous as his Muslim father walked out on the family when Obama was only two years old.

Reading the article by Sarah Kliff of Newsweek in the Irish Examiner during the week, it was difficult to understand what Obama really believes about religion. The New Yorker cover was probably intended as a satirical suggestion of how Obama is going to be painted during the campaign. Even if it was meant as a joke, it has clearly backfired. With friends like that, Obama does not need any enemies.

Some people have been drawing parallels between John F Kennedy and Obama because Kennedy was the first Catholic to be elected president while Obama would be the first non-white person to hold the office. But Kennedy was not the first Catholic to run for the Democrats.

Alfred E Smith, the Catholic governor of New York, ran in 1928 and got so badly beaten that no party dared to nominate another Catholic for 32 years.

The big question now is whether Obama will turn out out to be a Smith or a Kennedy? Much could depend on his selection of a running mate. It seems Hillary Clinton is interested, but pundits have been suggesting Obama will shy away from her because if she is on the ticket, Bill Clinton will be back on the scene.

When Al Gore ran for president in 2000 he basically shut out Bill Clinton. He apparently wanted to demonstrate that he could win the White House without Bill’s help. He duly lost. Maybe he lost because they could not count in Florida, but that was beside the point. It should never have come down to the chads in Florida.

Bill Clinton was unquestionably the most popular president leaving the White House in the past 40 years. Ronald Reagan’s popularity plummeted during his second term. George Bush senior, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford were all kicked out of the White House by the voters, while Nixon was run out and Lyndon Johnson pulled out because he realised he had no chance of winning re-election.

Yet Gore ignored Clinton and distanced himself from him in 2000. Obama could be making the same mistake if he passes over Hillary Clinton for his running mate in the November election.

She won the primaries in big states like California, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Anyone else he might pick will be little more than a political pygmy by comparison. Of course, candidates have tended to pick nonentities as vice-presidential candidates in recent decades. All went on to run for the presidency, but only George Bush senior made it. As a result, their help in the number two spot must be questioned. Lyndon Johnson undoubtedly helped Kennedy over the finishing line in 1960 by helping to win Texas and a number of other southern states.

There never had been any love lost between the two of them, but Kennedy picked Johnson. I wonder if anybody could name Al Smith’s running mate?

Both race and religion are going to figure in the November election. Nelson Mandela has been a beacon not only for black politicians, but for all politicians and for politics itself. He celebrated his 90th birthday this week, and he was celebrated around the world. He will undoubtedly be remembered as one of the greatest leaders of the 20th century.

BUT some of the other black leaders are not much help to Obama. Politics in Kenya, his father’s home country, are in turmoil. Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe is an absolute disgrace and Thabo Mbeki will be best forgotten in South Africa.

Even in the US, Obama has been having his problems with prominent blacks, such as his former friend, Rev Jeremiah Wright, and now Rev Jesse Jackson has stuck his foot in his mouth.

Obama, who grew up without his father, had been talking about parental responsibility. Jackson was watching this in a Fox News television studio as he was waiting to be interviewed.

“See, Barrack,” Jackson whispered to the black man sitting beside him, “he’s been talking down to black people on faith basis. I wanna cut his nuts off.”

The whole thing got massive airplay in the US and is available on YouTube. On Wednesday Jackson issued a statement: “For any harm or hurt that this hot mic private conversation may have caused, I apologise. My support for Senator Obama’s campaign is wide, deep and unequivocal. I cherish this redemptive and historical moment.”

Obama had better keep a close eye on Jesse’s “deep support” because — as they say in rugby circles — he could lose his “jewellery”.