Paul Hosford: Why Irish opinion polls rarely decide who actually wins elections

Sinn Féin’s polling lead revives familiar narratives, but Irish electoral history suggests momentum and outcomes are rarely the same thing

Mary Lou McDonald's party was the most popular in this week’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll at 24%. Picture: Leah Farrell

It's a funny thing, opinion polling.

Just over a year after the Government was formed, the polls once again have Sinn Féin leading, with alarm bells being sounded about Fianna Fáil’s sluggish performance.