Mahon Tribunal - Important work still lies ahead

REGARDLESS of what version is true, the conflict of evidence between Taoiseach Bertie Ahern’s version and the Mahon Tribunal’s account of aspects of his financial affairs in the 1990s, is unlikely to have a strong bearing on the outcome of moves to form the next government.

That said, however, there is no concealing the fact that the Taoiseach has more questions to answer in light of apparent discrepancies uncovered by the tribunal, which resumed yesterday.

In a damage limitation PR blitz, the Taoiseach’s lawyers claimed the tribunal had allowed itself to be used in a malicious campaign against him.

Like it or not, however, Mr Ahern will continue to be dogged by the murky nature of currency dealings surrounding the refurbishment of a house by his former partner Celia Larkin. Owned by Manchester businessman Michael Wall, who gave Mr Ahern £30,000 sterling in cash. The property was subsequently purchased by Mr Ahern.

According to counsel for the tribunal, there is very little documentary proof to support Mr Ahern’s evidence about the source of the five lodgments totalling more than £116,000.

Pointedly, the tribunal is probing an apparent discrepancy in the lodgment of £30,000 sterling Mr Ahern claims was made on his behalf. Bank records show the total amount of sterling notes exchanged at the branch for Irish punts on the day in question was only £1,921.55.

The tribunal also heard that £28,772 punts lodged to Ms Larkin amounted to $45,000 dollars at the foreign exchange rates on a day when Mr Ahern said he had no significant dollar transactions.

Politically, these allegations are unlikely to damage the Taoiseach. The PDs are decimated and in no position to lecture him or reclaim the high moral ground.

Tactically, if Mr Ahern hopes to get into bed with either the Greens or Labour, he could deflect their doubts by saying his side of the story has not been heard.

Barring a political earthquake, and despite last-ditch efforts by Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny to assemble a rainbow coalition, the new government looks certain to be formed by Fianna Fáil, either with the Greens or Labour, or in a jigsaw involving the two surviving PDs plus like-minded Independents from the FF gene pool.

Arguably, if the tribunal followed its own logic, the suspension of hearings, ordered by the chairman so as to avoid influencing the outcome of the general election campaign, should have continued until the new government was formed.

If, for instance, the election had thrown up a hung Dáil, there can be no denying that the emergence of really damning revelations about the Taoiseach’s affairs could profoundly influence the outcome of negotiations between parties jockeying to form alternative governments.

A political Houdini with a remarkable survival record, Mr Ahern is poised to form his third government in a row, equalling a record set by Eamon de Valera. If Fine Gael hoped an earthquake would hit yesterday’s tribunal session, it will be disappointed.

During the coming weeks and months the tribunal will investigate an allegation that Mr Ahern was paid £30,000 by businessman Owen O’Callaghan, developer of the Quarryvale shopping centre, to block a tax deal for a rival project, something both men deny.

Much of the ground to be covered in this module is already in the public domain as a result of media leaks.

By the time the Taoiseach appears before the tribunal, a new administration dominated by Fianna Fáil will likely be up and running.

With a thumping mandate from the voters to rule the country, the Taoiseach seems impervious to whatever allegations are thrown at him. The teflon is in tact.