General Election - All to play for as campaign nears finale

Party leaders are clearly in a determined mood because it is still all to play for as the General Election campaign enters the final couple of days of full campaigning before the moratorium on radio and television coverage begins on Wednesday.

It has been somewhat of a rollercoaster campaign since early on the morning of the last Sunday in April, when the Taoiseach asked President Mary McAleese to dissolve the Dáil and call a general election for next Thursday.

The Taoiseach accused the opposition of waging a personal campaign against him over his personal finances. He was dogged during the early campaign by demands that he explain allegations of money payments in relation to the purchase of his house.

It was more than a week before Mr Ahern issued a comprehensive statement. The most recent polls indicate that a majority of voters do not believe his explanation, but it would seem that the issue has been parked until it can be taken up again after the Mahon Tribunal reconvenes next week.

The issue could yet prove problematical in the immediate post-election period if Fianna Fáil is involved in negotiations to form a government while the tribunal is examining these questions.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny came under strong pressure in an RTÉ interview yesterday because of his refusal to say whether or not he is content with the Taoiseach’s explanation.

Mr Kenny has been judicious in refusing all along to usurp the function of that the Mahon Tribunal, appointed by the Dáil, to pronounce on these issues.

The Taoiseach has enjoyed deserved credit for his role in helping to broker the formation of the power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland. He received a campaign boost by the scene of an enthusiastic Ian Paisley coming to Dublin to shake his hand, as well as the unprecedented honour accorded to him of being invited to address Britain’s Parliament.

Moreover, Fianna Fáil has been able to exploit warm tributes paid to Mr Ahern for his role in the peace process by both former President Bill Clinton and outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

But none of those people will be voting on Thursday.

The most recent public opinion polls have been suggesting that the election could result in a hung Dáil with neither of the alternative alliances being able to form a government.

History would seem to suggest that ultimately the numbers will determine the formation of the government. In November 1994 the Labour Party ridiculed the notion of going into government with Fianna Fáil, while Fine Gael insisted it would not consider coalition with the Democratic Left, yet within the lifetime of the ensuing Dáil, Labour joined with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael later joined with the Democratic Left and Labour Part to form governments.

Just five years earlier the Progressive Democrats — which was formed essentially to keep Charlie Haughey out of power — propped him up as Taoiseach. If that alternative had not been on offer, the Fine Gael leader Alan Dukes had already offered to form a coalition with Fianna Fáil on the basis or a rotating Taoiseach.

If the numbers are right, history would suggest anything could happen. The parties are currently making their final pitches to the people who will decide on the numbers this week.