Michael McDowell - PDs may punch above their weight

WHAT happens today in relation to the leadership of the Progressive Democrats could have enormous implications for the next general election.

As it stands, there are a number of likely scenarios to the possible outcome of that election. The current coalition could be returned to power, or it could be replaced by a rainbow coalition that would include Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens, or Fianna Fáil could possibly form a coalition with Sinn Féin.

Whatever about the outcome of the General Election, the political pundits suggest that it’s only a matter of time, whether Michael McDowell is elected leader of the Progressive Democrats today by acclimation, or as a result of a contest some weeks hence.

Either way, his election is likely to generate new interest and re-invigorate the party, which had been tending to drift rather aimlessly.

His own performance in relation to the whole leadership issue earlier in the summer was anything but inspiring.

He seemed to try to push Mary Harney, because she had supposedly promised to move over for him, but he ended up with proverbial egg on his face.

He should have known that she was never going to hand the leadership to him, or anybody else.

As a result of that debacle the bookies initially looked on Mr McDowell as an outsider when Mary Harney announced her retirement last week. But they quickly suspended betting on a contest, once it became likely that there might be no other contender.

Many people do not like Mr McDowell’s political persona, because he frequently comes across as classic bully, arrogant, intemperate and intolerant of views other than his own. He makes enemies easily, and many find him disturbing. Others see him as articulate, passionate and committed.

Unfortunately, his promises and passion have not always been matched by his performance. People may hold strongly diverging views about his political prowess, but most people would probably agree that he could never be called boring, unlike so many of our consensus politicians.

At the last General Election, he rescued the Progressive Democrats by skilfully arguing that Fianna Fáil, then mired in scandals from the Haughey era, should not be trusted with an overall majority.

This time his message is likely to be slightly different: that people should not trust Sinn Féin going into government with Fianna Fáil, or any other party for that matter.

This could have a strong political appeal to the electorate, especially independent voters who see Sinn Féin as the greatest political danger, because nobody knows what that party really stands for, as it not renowned for its veracity.

The Progressive Democrats could again end up punching well above their political weight.