The Labour and PD lesson from 2002 is to never write anyone off

THIS year will probably be best remembered for things like the introduction of the euro, and the first re-election of a coalition in the history of the State.

Bertie Ahern's return to power was not nearly as surprising as the showing by the Progressive Democrats, whom the pundits were virtually writing off at the beginning of the year.

Before the general election they got a boost with the acquisition of Tom Parlon and Michael McDowell as candidates, but then they lost one of their founding stalwarts, Bobby Molloy, in extraordinary circumstances. He was accused of making improper advances to a judge by trying to make representations on behalf of a constituent awaiting sentencing following a conviction for incestuous rape. The PDs were further hurt by some pathetic efforts to defend Molloy's indefensible behaviour.

Senator John Dardis and John Higgins, the party's general secretary, put up an absurd defence. They decried the behaviour of political opponents by contending that the PDs never went hunting for heads.

This was absurd, because the PDs were our original political headhunters. Indeed, they can be proud of some of the scalps that they have taken. In little over five years they got some of the biggest heads in Irish politics no less than two Taoisigh in one year. First they got rid of Charlie Haughey in February 1992 and then they brought down Albert Reynolds that November.

They also brought about the ousting of the Tánaiste, Brian Lenihan, over his memory problems during the 1990 Presidential election campaign, and they set another precedent shortly afterwards when they torpedoed the nomination of James McDaid as Minister for Defence before he even had time to collect his seal of office.

The PDs got a real boost this year from some tax observations by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which reported that Irish workers enjoyed one of the lowest rates of taxation in the industrialised world in 2000. For instance, a married worker with two children and a non-earning wife paid only 5% of his income on the average national wage, whereas his counterpart in Britain paid over 14%, and their American counterpart paid over 15%.

Of the 30 countries in the OECD, only workers in Mexico, Iceland, Luxembourg and the Czech and Slovak Republics paid lower taxes than Irish workers. The report noted, however, that the OECD's figures were based on tax rates for 2000, whereas the Irish position was boosted further in 2001 by the fact that Ireland and Holland had cut taxes by the largest margin of all the OECD countries that year.

In these days when people are fixated on the electoral duplicity and broken promises of Fianna Fáil, it is worth remembering that one of the PDs' main planks has always been to cut income tax. In that they have succeed to a revolutionary degree. Initially, of course, their main plank was to keep Charlie Haughey out of power. They denied him his elusive overall majority in 1987 but then, two years later, they rescued him and propped him up in power for a couple of years.

Ultimately, of course, they not only ousted him, but also effectively ended his political career and then toppled Albert Reynolds' Government in short order.

Time may be kinder to Charlie and Albert, but it is worth remembering that after bringing down the government in 1992, the PDs gained four seats to become the first minority party in a coalition to gain seats in an ensuing general election. For instance, the Labour Party got roasted in 1997, when it lost 16 of the 33 seats that it won five years earlier. In 1987 Labour lost two of its 14 seats, seven of its 19 seats in 1957, and three of 19 seats in 1951, when the big loser was Clann na Poblachta, which lost seven of its 10 seats.

During this year's general election Michael McDowell came up with a brilliant strategy calling on the electorate to vote for the PDs in order to deny Fianna Fáil an overall majority. It worked. The PDs defied the predictions of the political pundits not only by strengthening their pivotal position but also doubling their seats in the Dáil.

For Fine Gael, it was another annus horribilis, as the British queen might say. They promised something for everyone, but nobody really believed them and they ended up getting a royal shafting from the electorate.

Now the pundits are wondering if Fine Gael can survive. The party is in obvious need of reorganisation, but recent events raise questions about its ability to organise even a Christmas party, much less reorganise itself on the national stage.

Somebody hired a rebel band to provide the music at the recent Christmas party. The ensuing rebel songs, apparently interspersed with Republican chants like "Ooh, Aah, Up the RA" was not normal blueshirt fare! It was about as fitting as having the Legion of Mary hire the Sex Pistols to perform at a pensioners' social. Was this deliberate sabotage or just incompetence on a monumental scale? The entertainment was hastily terminated, but now there are suggestions that the group should not be paid, which sounds like another bright idea from the organiser of the bash. It would make a nice court case, good for the band, and another few laughs for everyone else at Fine Gael's expense! With a few more bright ideas like that they could change the party's name to Scrap Sanity and entertain the nation. It's time Fine Gael got rid of the clowns and got down to serious business.

The rejuvenated Labour Party will likely pose some real challenges, following the virtual takeover by elements of the old Democratic Left. They were initially given the party's presidency as a kind of sop but this year they proceeded to win both the leadership and deputy leadership of the party. This amounts to a takeover, but it was achieved in the most democratic fashion.

Pat Rabbitte became the first leader of any political party in this country to be elected by his party's general membership. Some 87% of the party's members voted, so he can claim the strongest democratic mandate of any of the party leaders, especially as he enjoyed a decisive margin of victory. Public opinion polls taken in the run up to that leadership election favoured Rabbitte. Even though those polls were not confined to party members, they probably helped his campaign, because ultimately whoever won was going to have to demonstrate his, or her, political appeal with the broader electorate.

Members of the old Democratic Left have consistently been among the Labour Party's best performers in the Dáil, and Rabbitte's win is a testament to his dedicated work. While others were hedging their bets and keeping their options open, Pat had the courage to get off the political fence and state openly that he would not wish to serve in any coalition with Fianna Fáil in the current Dáil.

That probably enhanced his chances in the leadership contest, because he had established himself as a man who stands for something, not another self-serving politician whose idea of leadership is forever waiting on the fence in order to be in a position to exploit the latest change in the political wind. This augers well for interesting times ahead.