Competence will be the key to FF’s success in this year’s elections

WITH horse racing now mired in scandal and allegations of race-fixing, wise punters might be diverting their attention to politics.

However, when it comes to giving odds on the next election, there isn't much money to be made. Over the weekend it was reported that Paddy Power has installed Fianna Fáil at 1/10 for a return to power when the election comes in 2006 or 2007.

The odds seem well founded, not because of opinion polls, but because of the terrain on which this race is likely to be run. In the absence of any real ideological dispute, there are three criteria which will determine the outcome of the next general election change, cohesion and competence.

The call for change will be loud in 2006 or 2007. By then the Ahern-led FF-PD coalition will have been in power for almost 10 years. Fianna Fáil will have been in government for most of the previous two decades the short term of the Bruton-led Rainbow Government being the only exception.

In fact at times it looks like some on the opposition benches are banking on this mood for change hoping to get into government by default. However, the always-astute Irish electorate won't follow change for change's sake. They'll resist any arrogant presumption from Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens that they should be elected to government just because it's their turn on the Ferris wheel. In fact, in 2002 the electorate broke the revolving-government habit of a generation in deciding to re-elect the Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrat Government for a second term. The last election changed the opposition, not the Government.

What the electorate will be looking for between now and 2007 is some real reason to change government. The usual things required for this are alternative policies, a different view of the country's future, some idea of what the other crowd will do if they attain power.

All three of the larger opposition parties have been vague on these points to date. Maybe we'll hear some more about these things during their forthcoming party conferences although I suspect we are more likely to hear a litany of soundbites about the parties currently in power.

Relentless negativism is not going to get the opposition elected to power. A repetitious pattern of bleating about how the Government is said to have bought the last election and is now purchasing the next one is not raising the fortunes of Fine Gael and is only having a limited impact on Labour's vote share. It seems that the strongest charge the opposition parties can now throw at the Government is that it is being political in its decision-making. It's not as if the Government parties were the only ones involved in electioneering. I spotted at least two unsuccessful Labour party Dáil candidates among those lining out to front the new health service campaign launched last Sunday. Both Kathleen O'Meara and Nicky Kelly are, somewhat naively, hoping that joining the chorus of those scaremongering about hospital services will improve their electability.

Even if they do manage to come up with an alternative set of policies before the next election, Fine Gael, Labour and Greens will also have to come up with a greater degree of cohesion before they can really be at the races in the alternative government stakes.

Over the last two years they have shown more divergence than co-operation. For the first months of this Dáil Fine Gael was busy licking its wounds; Labour was electing a new leader; the Greens were parleying with Sinn Féin and the technical group with whom they now rotate their leaders' questions time slot. The Greens even came close to knocking Labour off the second spot in the parliamentary pecking order.

So troubled were Labour by the Green/Sinn Féin/Independents alliance that they entered a Faustian pact with the Government, selling their principle of parliamentary accountability so as to preserve their own position.

In order to ensure Labour would be the second party to ask him questions on Tuesday and Wednesday, Labour let the Taoiseach off the hook of leader's questions on Thursday.

In the last couple of weeks the three parties have been a little more successful at co-ordination. There was PR, hyperbole and even three-headed pictures on the plinth when the parties managed to co-author a private members motion on the ideology-free issue of electronic voting and on that great catch-all issue, the raising the status of the Irish language in the European Union.

Of course it will prove difficult for these three parties to co-ordinate their position on more central economic issues like taxation. Even on rural housing there are divergent views within and between these three parties.

The Greens, with the luxury of having no Dáil representation outside of Dublin or Cork, are loud in their opposition to changing regulations on rural housing but Fine Gael has to be more muted, not least on several county councils where the Fine Gael members have been leading the charge against the restrictive approach of some planning officials.

EVEN if all or some of these three parties get a bounce from June's local elections there are signs that they will all be on different sides if there is a presidential election in October. Fine Gael has declared its support for President Mary McAleese if she chooses to recontest. However, some in the Labour party (and even Pat Rabbitte somewhat half-heartedly) are beating their chests about how Labour is going to provide us all with an electoral choice. We could therefore have an interesting scenario where Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Progressive Democrats are backing McAleese while Labour are backing Michael D Higgins. Meanwhile, if there is a contest, the Greens will probably line up with a ragbag of independents and far left parties in support of some other champion of all causes. That won't do much to convince the electorate that there is any cohesion on the FG/Labour/Green benches.

By comparison, one of the most significant party political achievements of Bertie Ahern's leadership has been his ability to convert Fianna Fáil into a party which can make coalition government work. Not for Ahern and Harney the "we must have a head" syndrome of the Haughey-O'Malley or Reynolds-Spring governments. The most serious policy difference between the two current leaders was over the Stadium Ireland project but it never really reached boiling point. Bar one of the "small things" of which Albert Reynolds warned, this Government is likely to run full term for a second time.

Above all else, the Government's best defence against any mood for change will be its reputation for competence.

Competence was the key criterion in 2002 and will be the key criteria again in 2006 or 2007. Although it has had a difficult first two years, this Government's fortunes are turning. Economic indicators and public finances are healthy again.

Transport infrastructure is being rolled out. Health reforms have been plotted and real change, like consultant-delivered care in most hospitals, is to be in place by 2006. Shortly, additional revenues will be available to fund even greater social welfare increases and additional public servants.

There is always room for slip-ups but after a slow start this Government is getting into its stride and leaving the opposition pack behind.