It will take more than one brief spark to set the campaign on fire

THE Northern Ireland Assembly election campaign came to life for a moment this week — but only for a moment.

Verbal sparks began to fly and, inevitably, Ian Paisley was involved. He can always be relied on to liven things up when they get tedious.

The attention given to Paisley's kerbside spat with David Trimble illustrates how bizarre and boring the election campaign has been.

The low-key nature of the campaign is due in large part to the fact that this election was so long in coming. Originally due in the spring, the election was postponed to May and then, after a false start, was postponed again to the autumn. Of course the Northern Ireland media have dutifully covered the party campaigns but they have been predictable in design and content.

For example, it has been interesting looking at the Irish News and the Newsletter for the last few weeks the election has seldom, if ever, made the front page of either daily newspaper. One day last week a few paragraphs across the bottom of the front page of the Newsletter were given over to the fact that a DUP poster which worried aloud about Sinn Féin's Gerry Kelly becoming Northern Ireland's Minister for Police and Justice had to be removed from display areas in Tesco and Safeways stores.

On Tuesday of this week the Irish News carried a front page plea to voters from the father of a young County Armagh man who 'disappeared' last May to "think twice" before voting Sinn Féin.

There have also been one or two interesting television moments.

Significantly, on a Sunday politics programme Gerry Adams announced that although he might suggest Sinn Féin voters transfer to one of the two SDLP candidates in West Belfast, he was not so sure he would recommend that they transfer to the other SDLP candidate.

Overall, however, this election just is not creating 'stop the presses' campaign happenings or controversies.

Lacking passion or excitement it increasingly looks like the campaign itself will not exert influence on how people decide to cast their vote.

However, the campaign could exert some influence on who decides to go to the polls, and this could be more important. Before exploring the turnout factor let's put aside one issue that some commentators are talking up as likely to have an impact that is the numbers who have fallen off the register of electors in Northern Ireland since 2002.

In reality this is a bit of a sideshow. Some of the parties are just laying the groundwork for a spin in TV and radio studios next Thursday and Friday when things don't go their way. If all else fails they can claim that their vote fell below expectations because of changes in the electoral register.

In 2002, the electoral office in Northern Ireland implemented a range of significant changes to the registration procedure. Voters now have to provide personal information, including their date of birth and their national insurance number, when applying to register. Every application to go on the register now must be signed personally. In addition, when going to polls next Wednesday, Northern Ireland's voters will be required to produce photo ID. Although the electoral office itself has been issuing photo IDs to those who don't already have one, some will still not have the required identification to enable them to vote.

These registration changes are sensible, particularly in Northern Ireland where suspicions of electoral abuse through impersonation or 'graveyard' voting have been widespread. It is impossible to know how widespread these abuses were, but these new requirements should stamp them out.

The changes initially had a dramatic impact on the numbers registered in each of the 18 constituencies. The drop was particularly significant in the more nationalist, poorer and more urban areas. However all of the parties especially Sinn Féin who might have had most to lose have put a lot of effort into the rolling registration process which allows voters to go on the register after the annual register was published.

Even by May most of the active voters who had fallen off the register had been restored. For example, in West Belfast the register increased by 4% as a result of the rolling register process before the beginning of April. The postponing of the election has provided further opportunities to register.

ALTHOUGH the overall electorate is still down by a significant percentage in most constituencies the effect of this is likely to be very limited since those who are still off the register are more likely to have been non-voters.

Having slipped through the net (or ducked the net) for the annual registration process and the rolling registration process, these adults are most likely to have been either unavailable or uninterested. For example, this category would include many absent students or migrant workers whose families had kept them on the register.

The real key to the Northern Ireland Assembly election is not the fact that so many people have fallen off the register but that many of those who are actually on it will stay at home from the polls. In the week which remains the wise candidate will be putting a lot of effort into getting their core vote out on the day.

Over the last five years Northern Ireland voters have had all the opportunity they need to make their mind up about the different parties and their antics. This election is now not about changing voters' minds its about mobilising them to go to the polls.

Turnout has always been crucial in Northern Ireland elections. Local political analysts point out, for example, that the referendum on the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland produced the highest voter turnout there since 1921. However, about 150,000 people who were moved to go out and vote on the agreement were not moved to go out and vote for any of the parties in the subsequent Assembly elections held a few weeks later.

Canvassers in this election are battling against bad weather and darkness.

Residual security fears means that night-time canvassing is not welcomed in most of Northern Ireland. Rainy and shorter days have made the candidates' task a thankless one in fact many of them have picked up the 'flu virus going door to door. However, the biggest problem facing the candidates and their parties is that they are canvassing against apathy.

They have a particularly difficult challenge trying to persuade voters to go out and vote in a mid-week, mid-winter election, particularly in circumstances where it is not exactly clear what type of political process they are being elected to.

This time next week ballot boxes will be opened at count centres throughout Northern Ireland. It will probably be late Friday evening before we know who has won all of the 108 seats.

However, the number of ballot papers that fall out when the ballot boxes are first overturned will have a big impact on the final result. Who votes will matter as much as how they vote.