Surviving the media can be a tougher job than surviving a war

A TALE of two leaders this week? Or, at least, a tale of what we might think of them.

It’s easy enough to keep tabs on what the British people think of Tony Blair. Opinions about him are regularly polled and the findings published frequently. The results are probably surprising, mind you, especially if you want to believe everything you read in the papers.

For example, the British polling company ICM regularly carries out surveys for organs like the BBC and the Guardian newspaper. One of the questions they ask frequently is about the British Prime Minster and the results are illuminating. For instance, between April and July, roughly the same number of people in Britain thought he had firm principles and was tough.

The number of people who think he is competent declined a bit in the three month period between polls, although the number (nearly two-thirds) who think he is too concerned with public relations and spin remained about the same. In the most recent poll, a significant majority is dissatisfied with him, although a considerable majority believes that (a) the attack on Iraq was justified and (b) that Tony Blair does what he believes to be right for Britain.

And Labour still holds a clear, if declining, majority in the opinion polls, with most people still believing that the likeliest outcome of the next election is an outright Labour victory. When you break it down a bit further, that’s probably not too surprising. Labour is seen by the majority as having a better team of leaders than the Tories, more in touch with the views of ordinary people, with the right ideas on Europe and a better grasp of the economy and the National Health Service. If Tony Blair lies awake at night worrying about his popularity, he can probably console himself with the thought that the great majority of British people don’t think Ian What’s-his-name is the right man to run the Conservative Party, never mind the country.

It is, of course, clear that if Tony Blair has one problem above all others, it is his relationship with the media. The evidence of the polls is that his standing in Britain is considerably higher than the media would have you believe, but it remains to be seen how long his reputation and character can withstand the sustained assault of the newspapers and the appalling row with the BBC. Looked at objectively, you would have to conclude that he cannot survive such an assault indefinitely.

I’m not concerned just at the moment with trying to analyse whether the media is right or wrong. Everyone is entitled to their own view and to me it seems that Tony Blair got the Iraq war seriously wrong. None of the justifications trotted out in advance of the war have stood up - weapons of mass destruction are nowhere to be found, the morality of issues like regime change and preemptive war are still as questionable as ever and the progress of the peace process in the Middle East generally has not been advanced.

But there is, as yet, no real evidence that Tony Blair acted in bad faith - that he made up the reasons for going to war or, as the faintly disgusting phrase now has it, that he caused the reasons to be ‘sexed up’. That allegation has already cost a life and it seems to be the story that is motivating the hate campaign against Blair in the media. Looking at him on television, you can readily see the toll the whole thing has taken. He has aged 10 years in the last few months and he looks like a man in constant struggle with inner voices.

I’ve always been convinced that Tony Blair is a man with a conscience. He also has a strong will. Without those two qualities, Labour would never have won and they need them still. But a leader also has to be a listener and there are too many signs that Blair listens to too few people. He urgently needs to reconnect with his own country and its people. Once the enquiry into the death of David Kelly is over, he should take to the roads and constituencies he was elected to govern. If he doesn’t, he won’t survive much longer.

THAT’S one leader. Our own leader, Bertie Ahern, has taken a somewhat milder media bashing in recent weeks, with everything from his private life to the fact that he seems to be out of step with the rest of the Cabinet about issues like privatisation being paraded through the papers.

I’m not interested in the private details - I hope that whatever is going on there is sorted out amicably and that everyone involved is allowed to get on with their private lives. However, I read in one of last Saturday’s papers that Bertie is alone and lonely, and in one of Sundays that he was seen having a very pleasant evening with his wife, Miriam, in a restaurant in Skerries. I smell a rat.

To be blunt about it, I don’t believe these kind of stories normally appear without Bertie having something to do with them himself.

In the same way, if there is some old opinion poll data suggesting he’s in trouble politically, it’s reasonably safe to assume that’s coming from ‘sources close to’ the Taoiseach also. The opinion polls aren’t new or startling - the most recently published poll was the MRBI one in May which said that two thirds of the electorate are now dissatisfied with Fianna Fáil’s performance, rising to three quarters of those living in Dublin.

The party’s support now registers a perilously low 32% and Bertie Ahern’s personal rating has declined to a new low of 41%.

What may well be new, however, is mutterings within the party. Analysing the MRBI poll I just mentioned, the company’s managing director, Ian McShane, said: “Still, the Fianna Fáil grassroots supporters’ faith in their leader remains unshakeable at 79%, just weeks after Ahern publicly indicated his intention to lead the party into the next General Election and beyond.”

That’s one of the things Bertie Ahern and his people keep a very close eye on. If support within the party for the leader is threatened, they will act a lot faster than they would to any slide in support for the party among the people as a whole. And it is a sure sign that support for the party leader is on the wane when rumour-mongering and gossip become the common currency, as they are now in FF.

That’s why you’re seeing these stories about the loneliness and the end of the relationship, coupled with the chatty dinners and, of course, the upcoming celebrity wedding. It’s about stopping the gossip.

Bertie knows that the one thing he shares with Tony Blair is the perception that he’s a winner. If his popularity goes on declining, we will find out if he shares Blair’s other qualities of toughness and inner resolve. Popularity has been enough to enable Bertie to survive until now, but if the media go after him the way they have Blair, being nice won’t be good enough.