Bertie rules out coalition with SF - and you’d better believe him

IF THERE was ever any doubt that Bertie Ahern is the shrewdest political analyst and strategist in the country, then he proved it again last weekend.

It was always inevitable that there would come a point at which he would have to rule out unequivocally the possibility of going into government with Sinn Féin after the next election. The only surprise is that he has done it so early in the electoral cycle.

Bertie Ahern will know by instinct (and he may also have access to supporting market research) that there is a large chunk of the electorate who are very anti-Sinn Féin and who particularly have a strong antipathy to Sinn Féin being in government.

This sector of the electorate overlaps with the ‘Moby Dick vote’, which Eoghan Harris identified 15 years ago as a large concentration of educated, modern, middle-class voters who had determinedly moved around the ocean of Irish politics showering its favour firstly on Dessie O’Malley, then on Mary Robinson and later Dick Spring and, in more recent elections, on Bertie Ahern (albeit cautiously).

Since there is now near consensus among the main political parties on issues like taxation, and since most of the social agenda which also mobilised the Moby Dick vote in the late 1980s and 1990s has been resolved, there are only a few genuine ‘wedge issues’ with these floating voters, but their dislike of Sinn Féin is one of them.

Sinn Féin’s vote has been growing steadily since the last Dáil election but at the same time the opposition to them among a different sector of the electorate has been hardening.

This latter category always makes sure when voting either to put no mark opposite Sinn Féin or to give it the lowest possible preference on the ballot paper.

In the next election they are also even likely to decide who to give their first preference to on the basis of which of the parties they feel is less likely to pander to, or go into government with, Sinn Féin.

Fine Gael is naturally targeting that floating vote as part of its recovery strategy, so it has a vested interest in talking up the prospect of Sinn Féin being in government with Fianna Fáil, as Enda Kenny did last weekend. The Progressive Democrats, who want to remain Fianna Fáil’s partner in government, and who are competing with Fine Gael for the same vote, also have a vested interest in talking up the risk of a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin government.

For the related, but opposite, reason it is in Bertie Ahern’s interest to rule out the prospect of a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin alliance, even though the prospects of the numbers enabling such a government are in fact unlikely.

By ruling it out now the Taoiseach has again delighted and impressed his backbenchers and his grassroots.

Their delight is enhanced by the fact that, by doing so last weekend, the Taoiseach spoiled some of the impact of Fine Gael’s informal conference. It goes without saying that many people will not take Bertie Ahern’s commitment on this at face value, but on this point he is to be believed. In fact, the main reason the prospect of a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin government can be ruled out is because there is, in fact, no prospect of Bertie Ahern being forced into a choice between government with Sinn Féin and opposition.

As of now it is possible to envisage at least three other options which would put Bertie Ahern back as Taoiseach without Sinn Féin. He could still have the FF/PD option after the next election. As long as the combined losses suffered by the two outgoing government parties is less than six seats they will be able to go back into power.

If their combined losses are more than six, but less than 10, the FF/PD option could have enough ‘gene pool’ or other independents sufficiently well disposed to Bertie Ahern to give them a working government majority.

However, even if the option of a return to power with Mary Harney doesn’t present itself after the next election, Bertie Ahern will almost certainly have available to him the prospect of forming a government with the Labour party.

Fianna Fáil and Labour would have to lose a net figure of more than 20 seats to rule out the option of a Fianna Fáil/Labour government in the next Dáil, and that’s not allowing for any independents on whom they might be able to rely.

Of course it is always possible that on a bad day Fianna Fáil could lose 20 or so seats (and it would have to be a very bad day), but Labour would simultaneously have to experience a bout of bad luck by not picking up any of these Fianna Fáil losses.

THERE is of course a prospect that both Fine Gael and Labour could make a lot of seat gains and that a Rainbow coalition could take power with some other combination of smaller parties or independents.

This would relieve Bertie of having to choose between Sinn Féin and opposition - he would simply be forced into opposition.

If the Rainbow doesn’t have the numbers when the new Dáil first meets, Labour can comply with its obligation under the pre-election pact by supporting Enda Kenny in the first vote for Taoiseach, which he would lose. Then the Dáil will adjourn for a few days, or perhaps weeks, to allow the parties to explore their options.

Some argue that Labour would never go into government with Bertie Ahern and point out that Pat Rabbitte has specifically ruled it out and, in fact, was elected Labour leader on that premise. However, all that would change in a new Dáil situation in which there was initially no clear winner between the two alternative government options put before the electorate.

In the changed post-election scenario, Pat Rabbitte (assuming he is re-elected, which is not a forgone conclusion in the highly competitive Dublin South-West constituency) could do a U-turn - “in the national interest, you understand” - and go into government with Bertie Ahern.

If Pat Rabbitte is not prepared to do so, then he is likely to step aside or, if necessary, would be deposed in order to make way for someone like Brendan Howlin, Ruairi Quinn or Willie Penrose - any of whom could comfortably put a coalition deal together.

If Dick Spring could do it with Albert Reynolds, then Pat Rabbitte or his successor could do it easily with Bertie Ahern. There would be no real difficulty in Fianna Fáil and Labour coming up with a joint programme for government and a lot less difficulty than Fianna Fáil putting one together with Sinn Féin.

Of course, Bertie Ahern’s first choice for the next government would be an overall Fianna Fáil majority, but even he doesn’t see that as likely. His second preference would be a return of the current government of FF and the PDs.

If they don’t have the numbers, then he can rely on some independents. Even if those configurations were not available, Bertie would still have the FF/Labour option. As long as that option exists, he won’t even be put to the test of making the choice between going into opposition or going in with Sinn Féin.