Summer economic statement is a scene-setter for October’s budget

For all its posing as prudent, Fine Gael’s fiscal knicker elastic is not nearly as tight as its talk, writes Gerard Howlin.

YESTERDAY’S summer economic statement was ritual, process, tactics, politics and part national policy rolled up together. Despite the media coverage, it won’t be widely read by the public at large. In truth, it is a scene-setter for the budget in October and the real game begins now. Politically that game is the next election. More substantially it’s about policy, which will affect us long after the votes are counted and the posters are taken down.

The budget before an election is different I promise you. The pressures certainly are. This may not, in fact, be a pre-election budget but take it that it is planned as if it were. Policy choice is about framing the message. The fundamental choice for Government and Paschal Donohoe is how to frame policy, and to present themselves politically. It seems, for now, the chosen term is prudence. They will withstand the pressure to splurge, they will invest wisely, and they hope to be allowed to lead on accordingly. Whether the facts of their spending patterns lives up to its billing is another matter.