Fine Gael's Seán Kyne comes out on top in perfect political storm

It was a close-run race until the end, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas consistently increasing his vote count after count  until the elimination of Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane helped Mr Kyne close the gap

Not alone was he a serving senator, but Seán Kyne previously held a seat for the party in Galway West from 2011 until 2020, when he fell short and left Hildegarde Naughton as the sole Fine Gael TD in the constituency. File Picture: Sam Boal/Rollingnews.ie

In a county known for its unsettled weather, it was the perfect storm for Fine Gael as Seán Kyne came out with a win in the Galway West by-election.

The Moycullen man remained consistent throughout, eventually overtaking Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas at the death, claiming a second Fine Gael seat in the constituency for the first time since 2016.

There probably wasn’t a better constituency for Fine Gael to contest a by-election, with Mr Kyne being a ready-made candidate to stand.

Not alone was he a serving senator, but he previously held a seat for the party in Galway West from 2011 until 2020, when he fell short and left Hildegarde Naughton as the sole Fine Gael TD in the constituency.

But now, after six years in the Seanad and just over 18 months on from announcing his retirement from politics, Mr Kyne is on his way back to the Dáil with a win that bucks the usual trends.

There are few examples of a government party winning a by-election, with victories in those contests typically coming when a TD dies and their relative seeks to take up their seat.

Boost for Harris

It will likely strengthen Simon Harris’s position as leader, but also give Peter Burke — Mr Kyne’s director of elections — a boost too.

It was a close-run race until the end, with Mr Thomas consistently increasing his vote count after count  until the elimination of Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane helped Mr Kyne close the gap.

While Independent Ireland is taking some comfort from the massive increase in their vote compared to 2024, the fact that they’ve missed the opportunity to expand their parliamentary party will no doubt be disappointing.

Doubly so given that Mr Thomas went into the contest as the frontrunner, with fuel protests bolstering his position as the leading anti-government candidate.

But party leader Michael Collins has remained positive, suggesting the result would be a stepping stone for future electoral success.

“It’s a great platform for the next election,” Mr Collins said.

Leading the left

While throughout the weekend the focus was on the shootout between Kyne and Thomas, Labour’s Helen Ogbu was an important second story.

Labour members couldn’t contain their delight as they watched Ms Ogbu’s vote tick up and up, with her leading the left-wing candidates by a fairly significant margin early doors.

Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising, with Galway West being the home of possibly the most popular Labour politician in living memory: Former president Michael D Higgins.

With incumbent President (and former Labour councillor) Catherine Connolly now having left the stage in Galway West, it appears that a strong Labour vote is returning to the party after its time with the former Independent TD.

This can be seen most clearly in the shift from the previous general election, when Ms Ogbu received 1,973 first-preference votes and 3.3% of the vote.

Compare this to 2026, with her vote shooting up to 5,462 and 11.4% of the vote, outpolling all other candidates of the left and Fianna Fáil.

Political anoraks spending their time at the Galway Lawn Tennis Club have been keen to point out that if Ms Ogbu were to repeat such a vote at the next general election, she’d surely be elected.

This was something Ms Ogbu herself repeated just after she was eliminated in the penultimate count, insisting this was “just the beginning”.

“Labour is back with a bang. We are back, and this is our seat. We deserve a seat,” said Ms Ogbu.

“At the next general election, look out. Not just one seat, I’m actually predicting two seats.”

While Fine Gael celebrates and Labour looks forward, both Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil will be left dejected by poor performances, with questions now about the leadership of their respective parties.