Climate change drove Ireland’s record-breaking May temperatures, study finds

Cattle sun bathing on Sheeps head against the backdrop of Dunmanus bay ,three Heads and Mizen head. Picture; Eddie O'Hare

The record-breaking temperatures seen in Ireland in May would not have been possible without human-caused climate change, according to experts, who said the country is now pushing the boundaries of what was previously considered possible.

In a rapid attribution study by researchers from the WASITUS group at Maynooth University, working with scientists at Met Éireann and World Weather Attribution, the authors said Ireland baked under an “intense heat dome” that affected much of central and western Europe and brought record-breaking temperatures.

Researcher Dr Claire Bergin said it was “downright alarming” to break 30C in May in Ireland.

“While this may come as a welcome few days by the beach for some, the fact is these record-breaking May temperatures were not possible without human-caused global warming,” she said.

“We need to prioritise the reduction of greenhouse emissions immediately if we want to achieve the Paris Agreement, while also investing heavily in adaptation measures to limit the effects of these extreme events.”

 

The study noted that the previous May temperature record of 28.4C, set in Ardfert, Co Kerry, on May 31, 1997, was smashed by more than 2C last month. While Shannon Airport recorded 30.6C on May 26, seven other stations, whose readings are still awaiting verification, may have broken this record with temperatures as high as 30.9C.

Under the current climate, which is 1.3C warmer than pre-industrial levels, this single-day extreme would be expected to occur once every 60 years. In a climate 3C warmer than pre-industrial levels, this would happen once every 20 years.

These record-breaking temperatures are now warmer than they would have been in a pre-industrial climate, while the night-time temperatures experienced during this heatwave have become almost three times more likely and are expected to occur once every three years.

Met Éireann climatologist Paul Moore said the figures show what is achievable in Ireland in a warmer world when weather patterns conspire to allow heat to build under an “intense high-pressure dome”.

“To get a 2-degree plus jump in record maximum temperatures in any month is remarkable and shows that we are now starting to push the boundaries ever wider compared to what we previously considered possible,” he said.

Clair Barnes, from the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, added: “While many may have enjoyed an extended period of hot, sunny weather, we cannot lose sight of the fact that it is now clear for everyone to see how quickly our norms are shifting.

“Ireland needs to adapt for higher temperatures to come and continue on the path to net zero to play its part in restoring stability to the rapidly changing climate.”

It comes as a sweeping new vision set out by the World Inequality Lab on Thursday claimed that humanity can raise living standards, reduce inequality and keep global heating within a 2C rise.

The proposals include hefty wealth taxes on billionaires, sharp reductions in working hours, changes to diets, and a shift in investment from materially intensive sectors, such as industry and mining, to education and health.

If these and other measures are taken, the report says, the incomes of 89% of the world’s population would double by 2100 and global heating would be kept below 2C above the pre-industrial average.

The authors say their vision provides a positive alternative to the grim projections from what they describe as far-right techno-extractivists, nationalists and billionaires who claim the future will inevitably bring more fossil fuels, climate disruption and inequality.

“There’s a huge cultural, intellectual, political battle that is going on. And we all have a role to play,” said Thomas Piketty, a co-director of the WIL and a professor at the Paris School of Economics.

“The ideology which we see with [Donald] Trump and all the little Trumps that we have all across Europe and all across the world is simply not going to deliver.”