FG cannot afford another own-goal like the leaders’ debates

The catchphrase of the General Election campaign to date has undoubtedly been that ‘It’s Fine Gael’s to lose’ ; Is that the case?

Does it stand up to scrutiny and if it does stand up, what are the likely pitfalls?

Firstly, it certainly seems to be the case that GE11 is indeed Fine Gael’s to lose, and that should be no surprise to anyone, as this has been the situation almost as far back as the bank guarantee decision of September 2008. In the period since then, we’ve seen a disastrous slide in the polls, to historically low levels, for Fianna Fáil on the back of the difficult decisions they’ve had to take, as they would like to suggest. A more objective analysis would trace the source of their downfall to the party’s disastrous handling of the economy, and of government in general, during their 13-year tenure of office, coupled with a near-pathological incapacity to communicate to the electorate-at-large the nuances and subtleties of those difficult decisions, with which we are all so personally familiar.

The consequence of the FF crash in the polls has been the corresponding rise of all others, from Fine Gael right across the political spectrum to Sinn Féin, and beyond to the Independents, with FG, unsurprisingly, establishing itself firmly as the prime, and only realistic alternative for single-party government, and the unquestioned senior partner in any coalition.

A post-election arrangement for government without them is simply unconscionable at this stage, but the real issue is what will be a victory for them, and what would constitute a ‘loss’.

Single-party government, be it majority or minority, will certainly constitute an unprecedented victory of historic proportions, while senior partner in coalition would be a victory too.

For Enda Kenny, either would represent a magnificent personal achievement, having taken the entire party nationally from the brink of despair to the promised land through a decade-long campaign on the part of himself and a few close allies.

Ironic it is then that the single biggest weakness of Fine Gael’s presentation to the electorate is the leader himself, or so his ‘handlers’ would appear to believe anyway. What other reason could possibly exist for their reluctance to expose him to Vincent Browne’s highly idiosynchratic style of interview on TV3 tomorrow night? The ‘excuse’ offered of personal offence having been taken at comments made some time ago by the presenter comes across as somewhat limp, to put it mildly. If such offence had in fact been taken, why didn’t we hear about it at the time? What is there to lose? Enda is no Obama or JFK, that’s for sure, but there’s nothing new in that for anyone and yet his party still enjoys the lion’s share of the electorate’s support, and has consistently done so for the past couple of years.

The mishandling of the entire affair has served only to draw attention to the pressure under which the party is running their campaign, and the lack of confidence on the part of a section of senior party members in their leader. An empty chair won’t be necessary to remind us of the absence of the elephant from the room.

This particular issue has provided the single biggest landmark of the campaign to date, but what, apart from the other debates obviously, is likely to provide us with similar pivotal events over the next 17 days ?

Can Micheál Martin pull any kind of a rabbit from the hat to boost his party’s chances of having a real critical mass, and vital speaking rights in the next Dáil to give him the platform from which he can launch a Enda/FG-like rejuvenation of Fianna Fáil over the next decade ?

What about Eamon Gilmore? The momentum achieved during the course of the 30th Dáil, as evidenced by his consistently high poll-ratings both personal and party, appears to have stalled somewhat during the opening skirmishes of the campaign, dominated as they were always going to be by a new Fianna Fáil leader and the apparent shoe-in for taoiseach. He, too, is in need of a lift — his presentation opposite Micheál Martin during the television debate will be a chance for him to put down his marker, particularly in Kenny’s absence, an opportunity he can’t afford to let pass.

Gerry Adams? Or is it Caoimhin Ó Caolain? Or indeed Mary-Lou? Difficult to know at times, but that’s no reason to underestimate Sinn Féin — on the contrary in fact, they’re to be ignored at peril. Assiduously working away in their constituencies, comfortable below all the radars, and allowing their rivals to make the mistakes, they have real prospects of a seat total in the mid-teens, which, if it happens, will treble their current strength and deliver them as a major force in the next Dáil.

And then there’s the Greens, lest we forget! Similar to Sinn Féin, they’re concentrating largely on their own individual local challenges, where they’all hanging on for their dear political lives, with most, if not all, seemingly destined not to return.

Yes, very much Fine Gael’s to lose, but leaking any further own-goals, forced or unforced, can’t be afforded.

* Jim Glennon was a Fianna Fáil TD for the Dublin North constituency from 2002-2007