This election is still very much Fine Gael’s to lose

FEBRUARY 25 is election day and, as we say in relation to December 25, there’s only 20 shopping days left. During that period we’ll decide, if we haven’t done so already, the recipient of our coveted support to form the next government.

There's little doubt that, for the great majority of the electorate, one decision has already been made — and that is not to support Fianna Fáil. From near 40% poll ratings only four years ago, the historically dominant behemoth of Irish politics is struggling to achieve a level of respectability at around 20%, and it is by no means certain they will be successful in their endeavours.

The single biggest question this day three weeks, count day, will be where did the disaffected half of previous FF votes go — for it’s that 20% of the electorate which will undoubtedly be the deciding factor in the make-up of the new regime. It should be remembered too that, under the terms of our electoral system, the lower preference votes can sometimes be almost as important as the cherished number one.