This election is still very much Fine Gael’s to lose

FEBRUARY 25 is election day and, as we say in relation to December 25, there’s only 20 shopping days left. During that period we’ll decide, if we haven’t done so already, the recipient of our coveted support to form the next government.

There's little doubt that, for the great majority of the electorate, one decision has already been made — and that is not to support Fianna Fáil. From near 40% poll ratings only four years ago, the historically dominant behemoth of Irish politics is struggling to achieve a level of respectability at around 20%, and it is by no means certain they will be successful in their endeavours.

The single biggest question this day three weeks, count day, will be where did the disaffected half of previous FF votes go — for it’s that 20% of the electorate which will undoubtedly be the deciding factor in the make-up of the new regime. It should be remembered too that, under the terms of our electoral system, the lower preference votes can sometimes be almost as important as the cherished number one.

In a non-scientific analysis of the most likely destination for this disaffected cohort, it’s reasonable to assume that half of them are ‘dyed-in-the-wool’ Fianna Fáil who have become disenchanted, and the other half are, relatively speaking, ‘floaters’ who voted FF in 2007 because of their record in government since 2002.

The latter group are easier to predict in that, from their very categorisation as ‘floaters’, they will continue true to type, and will probably scatter across all the alternatives with Fine Gael and Labour taking a slightly disproportionate share.

The ‘dyed-in-the-wool’ FFers (let’s call them the ‘FFFers’, Fior Fianna Fáil) who have never voted any other way, and probably have never even contemplated doing so, present an entirely different, novel, and crucial challenge to all parties, especially those aspiring to participation in government.

We have seen polls this week indicating serious, and possibly terminal, difficulties for Fianna Fáil in Kerry, with both Tom McEllistrim and John O’Donoghue fighting uphill battles to return; and this in a county where FF held four of the six seats less than 20 years ago. Similar situations are to be found in both Dublin North and Tipperary North. In the former, my own constituency, FF have almost invariably held two from four, and indeed at times two from three, while in the latter, often considered a weather-vane constituency, two from three has been the situation whenever they’re in power. Taken together, there is a distinct possibility that none of these four constituencies will return a Fianna Fáil TD, where a return of eight would have been taken in the past as little more than a good day’s work. Thus an idea of the daunting nature of the challenge facing Micheál Martin.

A quick rule-of-thumb, ready-reckoner calculation would be as follows: 73 constituencies, Fianna Fáil to drop 1 seat in each, leaving them with 30 seats. Then examine each constituency for a variation on this theme, and particularly the anticipated tendency on the part of the FFF voter to give a reasonably high preference to their former allegiances, and it’s clear that the battles for the final seat is where the real action will be, with several careers, if not the make-up of the government itself, dependent on these preferences. While there’s likely to be a proportion of the FFF who would rather abstain than vote for someone other than FF, and will be happy to leave matters at that, the reality is that the bigger share will probably be drawn to Fine Gael, if only for the experience of their candidates, the vast majority of whom are established in their areas, and most of whom already have a record of service at local authority level, if not in the Oireachtas.

A direct translation of current poll standings into seats would run at 33 seats for 20% of the poll, 25 seats for 15%, and 17 seats for 10%, (to all of which totals should of course be added that of the automatically returned outgoing Ceann Comhairle, Seamus Kirk TD). This again brings us to a total somewhere in the mid-20s, leaving upwards of 40 seats ‘for export’, as it were. Again based on current poll standings, those 40 seats would be shared Fine Gael 18, Labour 12, Sinn Féin 5, and Independents 5.

Taken all round, and at a remove of three weeks from polling, and with the campaign yet to gather total momentum, it’s still very much Fine Gael’s to lose. I, for one however, will demur from the conventional wisdom of a presumed Fine Gael/Labour coalition government outcome. Next week, as the momentum gathers and the leaders come into sharper focus, will be a crucial one for all. The issue of the TV3 debate and Enda Kenny’s participation and performance in it will set the tone for the remainder of the campaign. His ‘handlers’ haven’t distinguished themselves so far in how they’ve dealt with it, and their leader will need to perform much better than they have, if he is to copper-fasten his position as ‘Taoiseach-in-Waiting’.

Captivating as the debate, and the performances of the principals — for once Vincent Browne won’t be centre stage — will be for ‘political anoraks’, the backroom teams will devour the public’s reaction to it, and it will form the basis of a very large part of their strategy for the remainder of the campaign

* Jim Glennon is chairman of Edelman Public Relations and a former Fianna Fáil TD and senator