Cautious Cowen cops out

OUT with the old and in with the, er, old.

As expected, Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s Cabinet reshuffle was innately cautious. Two Cabinet seats were vacant following the resignations of Defence Minister, Willie O’Dea, and Arts Minister, Martin Cullen.

Mr Cowen replaced them with Pat Carey, who is 62, and Tony Killeen, 57.

This is not to somehow suggest age should debar someone from Cabinet.

Both Mr Killeen and Mr Carey are experienced politicians, and that experience will count for a lot when they enter their respective departments. But their promotions do little to help promote the image of a new and dynamic Cabinet. This is not a new Cabinet. It is anything but.

To disguise this, Mr Cowen shuffled a few ministers around and changed a number of government departments.

The goal, he said, was to ensure that “political leadership and administrative capacity are aligned with the core objectives of economic recovery, job creation and support for those who have lost their jobs.”

So, for example, the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment becomes the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Innovation. It assumes responsibility for the programme for research in third-level institutions.

The Department of Education and Science becomes the Department of Education and Skills. It will assume responsibility for skills and training policy from the Department of Enterprise.

The Department of Social and Family Affairs becomes the Department of Social Protection, and will assume responsibility for employment services, again from the Enterprise Department.

The Department of Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs becomes the Department of Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs. As the name suggests, it is assuming responsibility for equality issues from the Department of Justice.

And a few ministers have been shuffled around.

Batt O’Keeffe gets a promotion from Education to Enterprise. Éamon O Cuív goes from Community Affairs to Social Protection. Mr Carey comes in as Mr O Cuív’s replacement at Community Affairs. And Mr Killeen takes over at Defence.

But all of this was fairly safe. No minister was sacked, meaning the most unpopular Cabinet members remain firmly in place.

Mary Harney stays on as Health Minister, despite drawing much flak in that role, most recently over the fact that she remained on a two-week state visit to New Zealand during the X-ray scandal at Tallaght Hospital.

Similarly, Noel Dempsey stays on as Transport Minister, despite going on holiday during the worst of the weather crisis in January.

Admittedly, Mr Cowen bowed to one inevitability – that Tánaiste Mary Coughlan could no longer continue at the Department of Enterprise. Numerous gaffes and poor media performances had seen to that.

Ms Coughlan was regarded as a liability. And so Mr Cowen moved her to Education – a decision which astounded her critics and was quickly seized upon by the opposition.

“The best way to become Minister for Education? Be incompetent in another department,” a Fine Gael press release thundered.

But arguably the Taoiseach’s most puzzling decision was not moving Mary Coughlan to Education, or leaving Mary Harney in Health or Noel Dempsey in Transport – it was demoting Mary Hanafin to the Department of Tourism.

This is the second time that Mr Cowen has demoted Ms Hanafin when forming his Cabinets, and the decision raised eyebrows around Leinster House.

Ms Hanafin is regarded as one of the few performing ministers in Cabinet, with Government and opposition TDs alike viewing her as a capable, tough politician. In addition, along with the likes of Brian Lenihan, Micheál Martin and Dermot Ahern, she is one of the few Fianna Fáil ministers able to perform strongly when appearing in themedia.

From a publicity perspective, she is a help, rather than a hindrance, to the Government. It therefore seems astonishing that Mr Cowen would sideline her in such fashion.

But then, none of his changes seem like they will boost the Government’s public image. It is a deeply unpopular administration, and the limited reshuffle won’t change that. What Mr Cowen really needs is for the economy to turn around in time for the next general election.

In the meantime, he may have stored up problems with his backbenchers that could cause an election sooner rather than later.

In an attempt to mollify the Greens and preserve Government stability, Mr Cowen granted the junior coalition partners a second junior ministry, which went to Ciarán Cuffe.

This means that four of the six Green TDs now have positions in Government – senior ministers John Gormley and Eamon Ryan, and junior ministers Mr Cuffe and Mary White (who replaces Trevor Sargent following his recent resignation).

But granting the Greens a second junior ministry meant one less position was available to Fianna Fáil backbenchers. And that may irritate quite a few of them, who already believe the Greens have been given far too much for a party their size.

Numerous TDs already lack confidence in Mr Cowen – not surprising given that his poll ratings are virtually on the floor. If the current dismal support levels for either Mr Cowen or Fianna Fáil were replicated in the election, dozens of backbenchers would lose their seats.

So they are hanging in there behind Mr Cowen. The TDs may have expected, therefore, that the Taoiseach would, on this occasion, stand up to the Greens and deny them a second junior gig, preserving that instead for one of his own party.

After all, it’s hardly as if the Greens would have pulled the plug. Deeply unpopular themselves right now, the Greens knew they would have been obliterated in a snap election if their reason for pulling out of coalition was an argument over jobs for the boys.

At a time when over 450,000 people are unemployed in this country, such a self-serving action would not have gone down well with the electorate.

Yet Mr Cowen acted cautiously, and gave the Greens the extra job.

It was symbolic of the entire reshuffle – cautious and conservative. One suspects a far bolder approach was required for Mr Cowen to have any long term hopes of saving his leadership.