Expected rise in number of anti-establishment MEPs
Anger against governments, fear over the economic crisis and a failure to communicate the parliament’s importance are expected to increase the number of anti-establishment MEPs.
But predictions by political scientists say the shift in the balance of power between the left and the right in the parliament will not change very much.
Dr Michael Marsh of TCD, one of those behind the Predict09.eu website, sees the far right and euro sceptics not making many inroads and believes they will have less than 100 seats between them.
The centre right European People’s party to which Fine Gael belong will lose some seats also but still have around 240. The Socialists will remain the second largest group with around 200 seats losing some 17, and the Liberals to which Fianna Fáil is allied, will also drop seats but remain the third largest group.
Voting is spread out over four days and while officially no results are to be announced until voters in all 27 member states have gone to the polls, the Netherlands is planning to get around this and release indications today.
A spokesperson for the Dutch point out that they are simply releasing an indication of the vote outcome and that the law only prohibits official results from being revealed before the rest of the nations have voted.
Most countries go to the polls on Sunday and booths will be closed everywhere by 9pm Irish time. There will be exit polls from several countries from late afternoon.
Ireland’s results are unlikely to be finalised until midday Monday but the full composition of the new parliament is unlikely to be known for up to 10 days as Portugal takes a long time to count its votes.
The Dutch and the British go to the polls today, the first to do so in what is the biggest trans-national democratic vote in history. As in many other countries, both have fielded strong far right candidates.
The British National Party, which denies the holocaust and is deeply xenophobic is tipped to pick up a seat or two, though the Green Party believe they have convinced anti-government voters to plump for them.
The Conservatives are expected to improve their vote in this election but the big winners are expected to be the UK Independence Party, which wants to take the country out of the EU. They are expected to win seats at Labour’s expense. Turnout is expected to be low and there will be exit polls when the stations close at around 9pm.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is hoping to avoid pressure to call a national election following the result, by announcing a reshuffle of his cabinet next week.
The Dutch are having problems motivating voters also and turnout is not expected to increase over the 39% in 2004. Media reports suggest polling stations are having problems getting sufficient staff.
But the strong anti-immigrant stance of the Dutch – 55% want emigration restricted – is showing in the popularity of the MP Geert Wilders’ party who was topping the polls. He is last on his party list and unlikely to take a seat in the European Parliament. Deeply anti-Islamic and banned from entering Britain after the Home Office said his presence was a threat to “one of the fundamental interests of society”, his party is expected to pick up four of the 25 Dutch seats.
Turnout in Ireland has increased for last of the three elections reaching over 58% in 2004. A similar turnout is expected this year. The numbers voting was also up in Italy, the Netherlands, Britain and Finland.
The Czechs vote both today and tomorrow . Cyprus, Malta and Latvia vote on Saturday.
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