One million face infection if bird flu outbreak hits Ireland

MORE than one million people could be affected by a major outbreak of avian flu in Ireland, with as many as 15,000 deaths likely to result from the pandemic.

The fallout from a major outbreak of a fatal virus in the Republic was outlined by a senior Health Service Executive official yesterday.

Gavin Maguire, assistant HSE national director with responsibility for emergency management, said at least one quarter, and possibly more, of the population was likely to become infected during the first wave of a major flu pandemic. He said the predicted death rate was based on the worst-case scenario of 37 fatalities per 10,000 population.

Addressing a conference on major disaster planning organised by the Irish Health Services Accreditation Board in Dublin yesterday, Mr Maguire said more than 90,000 people might need to be treated in hospitals during such an outbreak, which would require the cancellation of all other non-essential hospital services. However, he claimed Ireland’s preparedness to deal with a flu pandemic was “quite favourable” compared with many other EU countries. Medical experts believe 98% of the population can be treated successfully at home.

Several HSE specialist groups are developing a major emergency plan, which will include a hotline to provide advice to the public and deter them from attending A&E wards and the risk of overcrowding hospitals.

“It’s important that people get the message that the safest place for them is in their own home,” said Mr Maguire. “There will be a huge responsibility on the individual to behave in a co-ordinated fashion in what would be a crisis for the country.”

He stressed that it was important for people to be aware of what was being planned because it was impossible to predict when there might be a major health scare.

“We are closer to a pandemic than any time since 1968,” he told the conference. Nevertheless, Mr Maguire said the threat of an outbreak of avian flu was no more imminent than 12 months ago.

He reassured the audience that the current H5N1 form of avian flu does not pose a major risk to the public as the virus is very difficult for humans to contract. “There is no strong evidence of it adapting to becoming more infectious for humans.” The conference heard that there have been three major flu pandemics in the past 100 years, with the most virulent, the Spanish Flu of 1918, resulting in up to 40 million deaths, more than the total number of people killed during World War I.

Mr Maguire said a key difference between past pandemics and any new outbreak was the availability of anti-viral drugs and vaccines to treat patients. Nevertheless it would take six months following a major flu pandemic before a successful vaccine was likely to become widely available, warned Mr Maguire.

More than 1.1 million anti-viral drugs will be stored in the national stockpile by the end of the year, with the total rising to 1.8 million by the end of 2007. Around 200,000 doses of vaccine for the H5N1 form of avian flu will also be stocked by the HSE by December.