Turkey not long term buyer of live cattle, Bord Bia seminar told
Since May, the Turkish government has been importing breeder and feeder cattle with a 0% import tax, introduced for three years, up to 2018, said the seminar speaker from the GIRA international research consultancy specialising in the meat and dairy sectors.
Up to this year, Ireland had only a small share of the live cattle trade to Turkey, which is dominated by Uruguay and Brazil. But it is now a growing trade for Ireland, with a strong likelihood of increased exports, since the first shipment was sent in October.
Mr Claxton told the seminar the EU beef supply will grow this year, but with less cull dairy cows in the mix.
This promises a better opportunity for prime beef, with some improved demand for steak cuts… albeit at suppressed prices.
His 2021 forecast is for growing global demand for all meat. Ireland can benefit, but the supply of beef in the global market will grow, as key producers develop herds.
Brexit remains the big unknown for inter-European trade. However, Mr Claxton said the UK benefits currently from its heavy reliance on the EU (especially Ireland) to supply beef imports, because average import prices from the EU are lower than from non-EU sources.
In turn, Ireland is heavily reliant on the UK market, with cutting and retail packing facilities aligned with UK retailers. The cross-border trade with Northern Ireland of both live cattle and meat, badly hit by Brexit trends, is a useful outlet in both directions, said the meat analyst.
The importance of Asia as a destination for Irish meat was highlighted by Mr Claxton. The strong production decline limiting Australian beef output, over four years of severe drought, has changed the Asian dynamic, but Australia is now restocking.
Dominating the Asia market is China, where the decline in pork production has opened the door to a meat import surge. Beef is growing steadily in China, helped by introduction of western eating habits and availability of better quality beef. But the high price hinders consumption growth.
Mr Claxton said the Middle East and North Africa present growing export opportunities, but volumes are still small, with BSE restrictions.
Ireland has been given the green light to ship beef to Egypt, but it remains to be seen if Irish exporters can rebuild this business after a gap of more than 15 years.
