British beef imports set to rise by 3% despite recovery in supplies
The board expects UK beef imports to rise from 399,000 tonnes last year up to 410,000 tonnes by the end of 2014.
Domestic British beef production is also expected to increase to 865,000 tonnes in 2014, a 2% rise on the previous year.
“Poor weather and low feed availability resulted in lower carcase weights in 2013 than in 2012, but they are expected to return to a more ‘normal’ position in 2014,” stated business analyst Eoin Kelly in the latest edition of Bord Bia trade publication Food Alert. “A modest increase in short-term slaughter supplies is forecast, with increases in male cattle over two years and of one to two years of age. However, in the long term, this is set to be reversed with calf registrations down 80,000 head compared to 2012.”
Total beef supply in the UK is forecast to grow from 1.12m tonnes to 1.15m tonnes in 2014, as imports rise a little more than exports.
Exports are forecast to increase slightly to reach 130,000 tonnes this year. About 85% of British beef stays in the UK, so better economic prospects will help the industry, as GDP growth is forecast to be more than 2% in 2014.
However, UK sheepmeat supplies will remain tight in the year ahead and EU production will fall even further, the beef and lamb group Eblex has forecast. Total production in the UK is expected to drop marginally to 287,000 tonnes.
“With UK imports dominated by New Zealand product, lower production there and diversion to other markets means UK imports are forecast to be considerably lower in 2014,” stated Eoin Kelly.
“The biggest change is the destination of New Zealand exports, driven by China’s sheep meat imports jumping from 50,000 tonnes in 2010 to 254,000 tonnes in 2013.” New Zealand sent about 8% of its sheepmeat exports to China in 2010 but 36% in 2013.
