Revised UK forecast bad for Irish
The Meat and Livestock Commission in the UK are now predicting no increase in imports of beef will be required this year to meet consumer demand because of the increase in production showing up for the second and third quarters of the year. The latest forecast will come as a disappointment to Irish producers who were hoping to capitalise on securing the supply of at least part of the increase in import requirements for the year, against keen competition from South American suppliers.
Bord Bia market analysts believe Irish exports to the UK should maintain their market share, but against competition from cheaper imports “returns look set to remain challenging” for the remainder of 2003.
The UK’s December 2002 Livestock Census have now shown production is running at a higher level than had been predicted earlier and output for the year will only show a marginal decline on 2002, meaning imports of chilled and frozen beef should remain stable for the year - but not increase.
Bord Bia says that for the first quarter of the year supplies of prime cattle in the UK were 2% lower than 2002, with steer supplies down 4% and supplies of heifers slightly higher.
Returns are now showing applications for the Special Beef Premium in December 2002 were up 70% and the reduced levels of supplies during the first quarter will be offset by an increase in output during the second and third quarters and a slight decline in the final quarter of the year.
Martin Ryan
