ESRI: Delta Covid variant won't stop strong rebound in Ireland

Prof Kieran McQuinn said with the vaccinations still being rolled out that any delay in reopening would be relatively short-lived.

Mon, 14 Jun, 2021 - 16:24

Eamon Quinn

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) said it believes the Delta variant will fail to derail the reopening of the Irish economy even as Covid cases flare in Britain.

Research professor Kieran McQuinn told the Irish Examiner that, at worst, the variants would likely cause "a bump in the road" to a very strong rebound for the Irish economy this year, by slowing but not ending the reopening of the economy.

Its assessment is based on Ireland's rollout of vaccines continuing with no hitch.

Mr McQuinn said the experience of the pandemic last year pointed to the fact that Covid variants in Britain or the rest of Europe will arrive soon, if they are not already present in Ireland, but he was confident there would no repeat of the tough lockdown that happened after Christmas.

There could be "a slight bump in the road", Mr McQuinn said. "It is not that we will launch into the kind of public health measures introduced at the tail end of last year, or in March of 2020.

"It will be just a delay, maybe, until there is time for the vaccination process to be more extensive. I think, in general, you can expect that the economy is still likely to grow quite strongly."

Mr McQuinn said with the vaccinations still being rolled out that any delay in reopening would be relatively short-lived.

Obviously all bets are off if the vaccines do not work against the variants.

The comments will come as a relief to hospitality businesses and pubs, which are still awaiting to reopen fully.

There are concerns that the flare up in Britain of the Delta variant would seriously affect its economy and in time have a fallout here.

British prime minister Boris Johnson will delay his plan to lift England’s pandemic restrictions amid concerns that a rapid rise in Covid-19 cases could put hospitals under strain.

The ESRI is readying its latest quarterly report on the Irish economy next week.

Ireland is poised for a blowout economic growth this year if the pharma and IT exporting boom continues, and if the Covid variants don't disrupt the reopening of the domestic economy, leading economists have told the Irish Examiner in recent weeks.

They predict Irish GDP could post double-digit growth.

Meanwhile, the Delta variant doubles the risk of hospitalisation compared with the previously dominant variant in Britain, but two doses of vaccine still provide strong protection, a Scottish study has found.

The study said early evidence suggested the protection from vaccines against the Delta variant, first identified in India, might be lower than the effectivessness against the Alpha variant, first identified in Kent, southeast England.

And shares in the US vaccine candidate Novavax reported late-stage data from its US-based clinical trial showing its vaccine is more than 90% effective against Covid-19 across a variety of variants of the virus.

The study of nearly 30,000 volunteers in the US and Mexico puts Novavax on track to file for emergency authorisation in the US and elsewhere in the third quarter, the company said.