September exports fall reignites Brexit fears

Figures showing Irish goods exports fell in September from the previous month may reflect the huge plunge in sterling since the Brexit vote in June, analysts say.

Seasonally-adjusted exports, which fell to €9.87bn from €10.32bn in August, were still higher than the €8.98bn of exports recorded in September 2015, the CSO figures show.

Analysts have been trying to detect evidence whether the 13% plunge in the value of sterling against the euro since June 23 will weigh on Irish exporters selling goods across the Irish Sea.

The evidence is mixed. Surveys of Irish factories show a slowdown in growth in manufacturing here since the summer though big Irish companies and multinationals may be less affected. For the first nine months of the year, the CSO figures show the value of all exports rose to €86.28bn from €82.13bn a year earlier.

Exports of food and live animals were up, to €7.32bn from €7.16bn, over the same period, while exports of so-called crude materials, and mineral fuels and animal fats were lower.

Exports from sectors most commonly associated with the multinationals such as chemicals and machinery posted increases in exports in the January to September period.

“Overall, Irish export performance appears to be holding up well given the sharp depreciation of sterling,” said Conall Mac Coille, chief economist at Davy Stockbrokers.

“That said, the euro has depreciated by 5% against the US dollar since the Brexit referendum, helping to limit the negative impact on competitiveness.”

Alan McQuaid, chief economist Merrion Capital, said: “One can only speculate as to how Brexit will impact Ireland in the coming months and years, but there is likely to be a negative impact on trade.”