A combination of pent-up trading, worries about the future, and Greece’s worsening economy could knock 20% or more off the Athens General Index today, they said.
Trading of Greek assets in the US over the period the bourse has been closed suggests the same.
“The possibility of seeing even a single share rise in tomorrow’s session is almost zero,” Takis Zamanis, chief trader at Beta Securities said yesterday.
The stock market is due to open this morning for the first time since June 26, just before capital controls were imposed to stem a flight of euros.
This was the result of the failure of Greece and its EU and IMF creditors to agree a new cash-for-reforms deal. Since then, a deal has been reached, but its implementation may prove hard.
“There is a lot of uncertainty about the government’s ability to sign the... bailout on time and for possible snap elections,” said Zamanis.
The European Commission predicts Greece will fall back into recession in 2015, contracting 2% to 4% after having only just emerged from a six-year downturn.
Banking stocks may take much of the brunt today because Greece’s financial sector needs to be recapitalised.
A report in yesterday’s Avgi newspaper, which is close to Tsipras’ government, suggested Athens is seeking around €10bn this month for bank recapitalisation.