Exports down as surplus on up

IRISH export value fell by 2% in October, though the seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose 8% to €4.15 billion. That was made possible as the dip was coupled with an 11% decline in import value.

The record trade surplus figure — the third time it has breached €4bn in 2010 — was slightly above initial estimates, which had been around €3.9bn.

October’s trade movement hasn’t dented commentators’ overall outlook for Ireland’s still positive export industry.

“The export sector offers the one ray of light at the moment in a fairly gloomy economic picture, and will be the key driver of the Irish recovery story in the years ahead,” according to Alan McQuaid, chief economist with Bloxham Stockbrokers.

Mr McQuaid also reiterated his forecast of a 7.5% increase in the volume of goods and services exports for 2010, as a whole, with another healthy increase of 6.5% due in 2011. He also still thinks Ireland’s total merchandise trade surplus will break the €40bn mark, this year.

“Almost half the multinational companies in the state expect to increase the amount they export in 2011.

“A survey, published last month, by the Irish Management Institute (IMI) and National Irish Bank found 47% of multinationals expect turnover to increase in 2011, while 11% are expecting a decrease,” he said, but warned: “A worrying aspect for indigenous Irish exports, in particular, is the exchange rate volatility of euro/dollar and euro/sterling.”

Yesterday’s October external trade figures, from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), also showed that exports grew by 3% — to just under €66.9bn — on a year-on-year basis, over the course of the first nine months of this year.

Over the same timeframe, imports, decreased by 1% to €33.7bn.