Russia sanctions will have wider repercussions

I have always believed that at best, economic forecasting is a hazardous exercise and at worst it is a total waste of time.

The problem is that economics is a social science that is heavily influenced by human behaviour. It is also the case that the most sophisticated economic forecasting models can be blown out of the water by political events and decisions.

The case of the Ukraine and Russia is a case in point. Not too long ago, Russia occupied pride of place as one of the BRIC economies and the Ukraine was well up the queue in terms of becoming much more integrated with the EU and membership did not appear too far removed. Today both of those assertions are being seriously challenged.