Blair reassures Turkey over EU membership

Tony Blair this afternoon held private talks with the Turkish leadership ahead of an EU summit expected to launch full-scale membership talks with Ankara.

The British Prime Minister flew into Brussels and went straight to a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Recep Erdogan.

The aim was to iron out last-minute details before a landmark dinner of the 25 EU leaders to agree to start formal negotiations some time next year.

Britain is Turkey’s biggest champion in the EU, but public and political unease is mounting in France, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands over the implications of admitting Turkey.

This afternoon Mr Blair was reassuring Mr Erdogan that the big prize remains in reach for Turkey – as long as Ankara continues its human rights and democratic reforms and does not make excessive demands at the start of what will be at least 10 years of negotiations.

Mr Blair and most EU leaders back a European Commission report that Turkey’s reforming efforts must be rewarded with the start of entry talks.

But German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder and French President Jacques Chirac both need an accession talks deal that includes “get out” clauses to appease doubters back home.

More than 60% of Germans are against Turkish EU entry. Right-wing German politicians say Turkey is too big, too Muslim, too poor and not “European” enough to qualify for full membership.

Hence there is pressure to offer second-class EU club membership in the form of “privileged partnership” status.

A French newspaper poll puts 67% of the French nation against the idea, and President Chirac has told Mr Blair he could not possibly agree to launch any accession talks before France has held its referendum on the new constitution in the first part of next year.

In the UK only 30% oppose Turkish membership, and Mr Blair would start accession talks tomorrow if possible. However, he will be content if the summit agrees to open negotiations during Britain’s EU presidency in the second half of next year.

Any delay beyond 2005 would almost certainly be unacceptable to the Turks, who have been knocking on the EU’s door for more than 40 years.

Mr Erdogan may even walk away from a deal tonight if the terms hint at anything less than full membership as the end result.

But Mr Blair was this afternoon convincing Mr Erdogan that, because of political and public concerns in some member states, the summit conclusions will have to make clear that starting negotiations does not in itself guarantee eventual membership.

That will depend on maintaining progress on huge economic, social, political and democratic changes required of Turkey prior to joining.

As things stand, Turkey, a large and relatively poor nation of nearly 80 million people, would qualify for vast EU subsidies for agriculture and regional and social reforms – straining the EU annual running costs to the limit.

Because of its poverty, Turkey would pay some €8.7bn a year into the kitty – but qualify to receive as much as €29.2bn.

But supporters of Turkish membership say the price is worth it to extend the EU’s peace-and-security dividend right up to the border with Iran, Iraq and Syria.

As the bridge between Europe and the Middle East, Turkey is of huge strategic importance, particularly in an era of increased terrorist threats.

On the other hand, a nation of nearly 80 million people could destabilise the EU, particularly if, as expected, many see membership as a ticket to migrate to wealthier EU nations.

For that reason, permanent limits on the right of Turks to live and work wherever they want in the rest of the EU may end up in Turkey’s eventual accession accord.

Mr Erdogan is also under pressure to recognise all current EU member states, including Cyprus and the Cypriot government.