Poland set to re-elect PM for second term

POLISH prime minister Donald Tusk and his centre-right Civic Platform (PO) looked like creating history by being the first government to run full term and be re-elected.

Having secured a majority of the votes at close to 40% according to exit polls in yesterday’s general election, the issue now to be decided is who will join him in forming the government.

His outgoing coalition partner, the Peasants’ Party, was returned in fourth place with sufficient votes to take a number of seats in the parliament at just over 8.2%, but ahead of them is the newly formed liberal Palikot Movement with just over 10%.

Hot on their heels is another new party, the post-communist Democratic Left Alliance A coalition with the SLD could cause problems for the PO.

The Law and Justice party (PiS), led by surviving twin Jaroslaw Kaczynski, came a close second at just over 30% but failed to bridge the gap it had narrowed considerably over the past few weeks to the surprise of many. Kaczynski’s twin Leach, the former president, was killed in a plane crash in Russia in April last year.

Despite PiS’s core conservative Catholic supporters coming out in force, their low-key campaign with its appeal to a new generation did not win over sufficient numbers. It was fashioned on the presidential elections with its Jaroslaw’s Angels — young, attractive female PiS candidates — striving to appeal to a wider electorate.

They promised to stop the large-scale privatisation of state assets, instigate a banking tax and higher taxes for the wealthy, as well as supporting the poorer member of society.

About 30 million Poles were entitled to vote for 460 members for the lower house (Sejm) and 100 in the upper house (Senate) in the elections. Normally, the turnout is low with the highest being around 54%. Around 20,000 Poles in the US voted on Saturday.

The choice of coalition partner for the Civic Platform will be very important for the next four years of Poland, the only EU country not to go into recession, although its government deficit is expected to reach 5.6% of GDP this year — well above the 3% demanded by the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact.

The international markets will be closely watching the outcome of government negotiations as the country strives to continue to keep its distance from the euro crisis — a currency it was due to join three years ago but put off.

The junior party, the Peasants’ Party, in the outgoing government proved to be a compliant partner and as a result the Civic Platform (PO) did not have to address any of the issues that might have divided the country.

Abortion, with its laws as restrictive as Ireland’s, and pension reform, considered essential by economists, have all been left on the long finger as Poland worked its way into the mainstream of the EU over the past four years.

However, Palikot’s Movement, (RPP) led by a former PO member, Janusz Palikot, garnered a lot of support in the lead-up to the election.

Running on a liberal-leftist — what some would see as a populist — agenda with a strong anti-church and anti-conservative message, he wants to liberalise abortion, decriminalise the use of marijuana, introduce gay rights and ban religious education from schools.

Palikot, who made a fortune in modern Poland and is seen as a beacon by many young Polish voters, could force PO in government to deal with the kind of divisive issues they have so successfully sidelined during their current term.

Many believe that Jaroslaw Kaczynski, 62, will be much happier in opposition than assuming the mantle he held for two years from 2005. During his term at the helm Poland became the pariah of the EU. While he may have agreed to the glamour model-type advertising campaign of the election, he also went along with a similar style when he ran to fill the seat of his dead twin and lost by just a slim majority.

However, he threw out the new style advisers after his defeat, blaming them for not going for the jugular and accusing the government of responsibility for the death of the president in the plane crash on Russian territory.

If Tusk, 53, is forced to introduce the reforms his government put off in its first term, Kaczynski will be able to give full vent to his conservative views, supported by much of rural Poland. in opposition.