Past decade likely to prove warmest on record

THIS decade is on track to become the warmest since records began in 1850, and 2009 could rank among the top-five warmest years, the UN weather agency reported yesterday on the second day of a pivotal 192-nation climate conference.

Only the United States and Canada experienced cooler conditions than average, the World Meteorological Organisation said, although Alaska had the second-warmest July on record.

In central Africa and southern Asia, this will probably be the warmest year, but overall, 2009 will “be about the fifth-warmest year on record”, said Michel Jarraud, secretary-general of the WMO.

The agency also noted an extreme heatwave in India in May and a heatwave in northern China in June. It said parts of China experienced their warmest year on record, and that Australia so far has had its third-warmest year. Extremely warm weather was also more frequent and intense in southern South America.

The decade 2000-2009 “is very likely to be the warmest on record, warmer than the 1990s, than the 1980s and so on,” Jarraud told a news conference, holding a chart with a temperature curve pointing upward.

In 2007-2009, the summer melt reduced the Arctic Ocean ice cap to its smallest extent ever recorded. In the 2007-2009 International Polar Year, researchers found that Antarctica is warming more than previously believed. Almost all glaciers worldwide are retreating.

Meanwhile, such destructive species as jellyfish and bark-eating beetles are moving northward out of normal ranges, and seas expanding from warmth and glacier melt are encroaching on low-lying island states.

If 2009 ends as the fifth-warmest year, it would replace the year 2003. According to the US space agency NASA, the other warmest years since 1850 have been 2005, 1998, 2007 and 2006. NASA says the differences in readings among these years are so small as to be statistically insignificant.

The UN agency reported that the global combined sea surface and land surface temperature for the January-October 2009 period is estimated at 0.44C (0.79F) above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00C (57.2F), with a margin of error of plus or minus 0.11C.

Final data will be released early in 2010.

The last few decades are the warmest period in at least 400 years and probably 1,000 years, based on evidence from tree rings, retreating glaciers and other scientific methods to track climate before record-keeping, according to a 2006 report by the US National Academy of Sciences.

Negotiators at the two-week talks in Copenhagen turned yesterday to “metrics,” “gas inventories” and other dense technicalities, as delegates worked to craft a global deal to rein in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and stem climate change.

Governments, meanwhile, jockeyed for position leading up to the finale late next week, when more than 100 national leaders, including President Barack Obama, will converge on Copenhagen for the final days of bargaining.

Scientists say without an agreement to wean the world away from fossil fuels and other pollutants to greener sources of energy, the Earth will face the consequences of ever-rising temperatures —the extinction of plant and animals, the flooding of coastal cities, more extreme weather, more drought and the spread of diseases.

Late on Monday, the Obama administration gave the talks a boost by announcing steps that could lead to new US emissions controls that don’t require the approval of the US Congress.

The US Environmental Protection Agency said scientific evidence clearly shows that greenhouse gases “threaten the public health and welfare of the American people” and that the pollutants — mainly carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels — should be reduced, if not by the US Congress then by the agency responsible for enforcing air pollution.

As Congress considers the first US legislation to cap carbon emissions, the EPA finding will enable the Obama administration to act on greenhouse gases without congressional action, potentially imposing federal limits on climate-changing pollution from cars, power plants and factories.

The announcement gave Obama a new card in what is expected to be tough bargaining next week at the climate conference.

In preparation, Obama met with former Vice President Al Gore, who won a Nobel prize for his climate change efforts, at the White House on Monday.

European climate change officials welcomed the US move.

“This is meaningful because it is yet a sign that the Americans have more to offer.

“My evaluation is that the US can offer much more,” EU environment spokesman Andreas Carlgren told reporters yesterday in Stockholm.

Yvo de Boer, UN climate chief, said the EPA finding gives Obama “something to fall back on”.

“I think that will boost people’s confidence” at the Copenhagen talks in the Americans’ ability to offer more, he said.

The European Union has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020, compared with 1990, and is considering raising that to 30% if other governments also aim high. EU leaders will have an opportunity to make such a move at an EU summit tomorrow and Friday in Brussels.

In Britain, Prime Minister Gordon Brown urged fellow Europeans to raise their bid on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to pressure the US and others to offer more at the Copenhagen negotiations.

“We’ve got to make countries recognise that they have to be as ambitious as they say they want to be. I want to create a situation in which the European Union is persuaded to go to 30%,” Brown said.