There will be no clear victor when the fighting stops

WHEN the fighting is over, both Israel and Hezbollah are likely to declare victory, but the truth will be far more complicated.

Hezbollah looks certain to be pushed back from Israel’s border, but its standing in the Arab world will remain high. Israel looks set to achieve its goal of getting Hezbollah off its doorstep, but the guerrillas can say they stood up to Israel and lived to tell the tale.

Because of each side’s need to appear victorious, a thunderous show of force is not unlikely before a ceasefire deal is arranged — perhaps a Hezbollah rocket hitting Tel Aviv, or a massive Israeli ground offensive pushing northward toward the Litani River.