House numbers to double by 2020

THE number of houses in Ireland will have doubled by the year 2020 from 1992 figures, according to Department of the Environment projections.

Housing supply in Dublin has already risen by a third in the past two years, but almost 200,000 new homes will have to be built nationwide each year in order to keep up with demand, a major conference on housing heard yesterday.

Much of the demand for housing is due to the huge population rise in the past decade, Maria Graham, principal officer with the Department of the Environment and Local Government, told the National Housing Conference at Limerick University.

But other sociological factors were also important, she said.

“The impact of population growth and social change, including marital breakdown and more elderly people living alone means that Irish household sizes are declining,” she said.

“The Irish population grew by about 8% between 1996 and 2002, while there has been greater growth in the key household formation age group, 25-34, which rose by an

estimated 18%. At the same time the average household size in Ireland has been steadily declining.”

She added that while Ireland traditionally had larger household size than our EU partners, it was now converging towards EU norms.

“It is anticipated that household size will reach EU levels by 2011, about 2.63 people per household.”

Ms Graham said strong demographic pressures mean that by 2020 the Irish housing stock will be double its 1992 level, with most of this development taking place in this decade.

All regions are likely to face this upward pressure as the National Spatial Strategy population forecasts indicate.

“We’ve built over 160,000 houses in the last three years. Demographic trends show that we’ve got to continue with this high level of supply and

ensure that it matches the changing need over time,” she said. However, the conference also heard a leading architect warn that the cost of modern suburban developments in Ireland could be double the cost of traditional terraced homes.

Tony Reddy said there are serious social, financial and environmental implications to the current patterns of suburban development.

“In the United States and Britain, for example, the cost of providing infrastructure and services for low density development is approximately twice the cost of providing for terraced compact development.

“A typical suburban household owns two cars and takes 12 car trips a day while driving 20,000 to 30,000 miles annually.

"Except for housing costs, suburban dwellers spend more on cars than in any category of expenses, including food.”