Away goal means Ireland are walking a tightrope

It is a rule that has tipped the scales of European football for exactly 50 years, has the potential to make every minute of tonight’s 90 feel insufferably heavy, but only offers a benefit that Martin O’Neill says can be “wiped out” in a second.

Ireland might have the advantage of ‘the crucial away goal’ from the 1-1 first leg in Zenica but one slip, one error, and Bosnia and Herzegovina would suddenly have the platform - and possibly the confidence - to go and get a second such strike themselves.

So much worry, then, over so potentially small a moment.

An away goal can happen in a flash but will have dominated so much of O’Neill’s thinking. He must decide on exactly how to strike the right balance tonight between Ireland protecting their advantage but also building on it; between trying to kill the game but not leaving themselves open to a killer goal.

The deeper problem, after all, is that recovering from a second Bosnian away goal would be close to irretrievable. That in turn heightens the danger of a first.

It is a curious situation, but then it is a curious rule, and one that is slightly anachronistic in the modern game given how it can stifle ties more often than it opens them up.

That is the opposite of its original intention, when it did make much more sense.

Last week, November 10 actually, marked the 50th anniversary of the first application of the rule. At that point, when Budapest Honved eliminated Dukla Prague from the second round of the 1965-66 Cup Winners Cup, travel and media exposure were obviously nowhere near as widespread as now. Teams would be travelling to venues they had no knowledge of, and play opposition teams they couldn’t even properly scout. Literal fear of the unknown created a fear in play, as away legs often saw sides play defensive football because they didn’t know what to expect. It was a natural reaction to stepping on unfamiliar ground.

The away goal rule was designed to bring teams out by giving greater rewards and that initially happened.

Over time, however, it began to have an unintended consequence. As teams came to know so much more about each other, and an away goal literally meant more than a home goal, some managers would choose to be more defensive in their own stadium.

That could be seen this week with how Bosnia manager Mehmed Bazdarevic chose to play central defender Edin Cocalic in midfield, strengthening the backline but removing their fluency.

On the flipside, it has arguably inverted the old advantage of getting to play your second leg at home too.

Teams suddenly leave themselves susceptible to not having done enough in the first leg.

There’s no greater indication of this than Alex Ferguson’s evolution in Europe. He used to see 0-0 in a first-leg trip as a fine result, only to gradually change his thinking because Manchester United so often got burned.

Ireland got a better result than 0-0 but still have to navigate a similar dilemma. It is going to condition the entire game, and likely decide it too.

Many managers naturally try and alter their teams’ thinking and treat it like a normal game that must be won, given how consciously trying to protect something can actually see a side concede initiative to the point that conceding a goal becomes inevitable.

James McCarthy reflected that viewpoint.

“We need to go and try and win the game,” the midfielder admitted.

O’Neill may not be so gung ho. Further distorting things, though, is the Bosnians’ own situation. They now must score, and will therefore finally get to play to their attacking strengths - as in the last few minutes of the first leg - but that could further expose what can be a porous backline.

That just creates another balance to be struck.

Ireland will have the temptation of exposing that backline, but risk giving Miralem Pjanic and Edin Dzeko the space they craved in the first leg and didn’t get until after Ireland scored.

It is, as McCarthy also said, a “tightrope”.

It will likely be the tie-breaker.