Premier League may pay dearly for mediocre European performances

There are still five weeks before a long football season reaches its climax with the Champions League final in Berlin but it’s already clear that this season has a sting in its tail.

The sting is the Uefa rankings and the victim is England. By this time next year the Premier League could be in serious danger of losing one of its qualifiers for Europe’s top competition. Instead of that precious Top Four spot, clubs could be battling for a place in the top three.

As things stand that might seem unlikely. Look at the current rankings, just updated on the Uefa website, and England are even ahead of Germany, both countries trailing well behind Spain. Only three countries are entitled to four Champions League qualifiers and both England and Germany appear to be comfortably ahead of Italy.

Appearances can be deceptive however. Next season’s rankings will be a lot closer and the gap between England and Italy will be significantly narrowed and could even be reversed.

Uefa rankings are based on the results of all clubs in the two European competitions over five seasons. Results are converted into points – two for a win, one for a draw – and points are also awarded according to how far clubs progress in the two competitions. Progress to the Champions League knockout stage is rewarded with four points and there is an additional point per round in the knock out stages of both the Champions and the Europa League.

English clubs have recorded fewer points this season than at any time in the past 12 years. By contrast the Italians have enjoyed their best season since 2003, when Juventus, Milan and Inter all reached the Champions League semi-final.

England’s lead over Italy in the rankings, which was as much as 25 points back in 2012, is now down to 11. It will be cut by at least one more because either Napoli or Fiorentina will be in the final of the Europa League. Italy will also benefit because the 2010-11 season is about to drop out of the Uefa calculations. That year was one of their worst ever, while English clubs topped the rankings ahead of Spain. Preliminary rankings for 2016 thus put England only about three points ahead. That sort of lead could be wiped out if Premier League clubs repeat this year’s failure and the Italians continue their revival.

Come the Euro 2016 finals, Serie A could be on the brink of reclaiming that fourth spot that was lost to the Bundesliga five years ago.

Those are the mathematics at least. In practice it will depend on how changes to the seeding for the Champions League affect the Group Stage – and whether Italian clubs can repeat this season’s exceptional Europa League showing.

Next season, Pot One of the Champions League will no longer be based on Uefa club rankings. England’s representation among the top seeds will be reduced to a single club and Italy will gain. Probably good news for Chelsea and Juventus, less good for clubs that have underperformed in Europe, such as Manchester City.

Clubs can no longer rely on past performance to be among the top seeds and the groups should be a little more balanced. Pots Two and Three are likely to be stronger than before, but clubs from the same country will still be kept apart.

English clubs will probably find it easier to adjust than the Italians. Serie A continues to be in a state of incipient crisis, symbolised by the two Milan-based clubs. At present it looks as though neither Milan nor Inter will qualify for the Europa, let alone the Champions League. That would be a new low for two of Italy’s finest and the first time ever that the city has had no presence in Europe.

Are other clubs equipped to take their place? Napoli and Fiorentina have done well this season, but neither club is financially strong. Neither of them even own their stadiums. The two Rome clubs have some pedigree, but don’t look competitive. But should the Italians now win the Europa League and thus have an additional Champions League qualifier, that Uefa ranking could become very tight indeed.