Different tone should be set, a draw is simply not acceptable

While it would clearly be ridiculous to make any kind of judgement on Martin O’Neill’s management after one game, tomorrow’s fixture in Tbilisi does offer a curious kind of acid test — and an immediate point of comparison.

For one, we’ve been in this situation here before. Literally. O’Neill will become the third Irish manager whose first competitive game comes away to Georgia — and that out of the last four, after Brian Kerr and Giovanni Trapattoni.

While the Italian’s September 2008 fixture was moved to neutral Mainz because of that August’s Russo-Georgian conflict, the impressive 2-1 victory still set something of a tone.

It was the start of Trapattoni’s fine away record and the foundation of his first two campaigns. For all the Italian’s flaws and idiosyncrasies, his ability to navigate away games could not be faulted. Trapattoni had a win record of 50% in competitive matches on the road, and an average of 1.94 points per game. That is by far the best of any Irish manager, with Jack Charlton second at 1.64 and Brian Kerr third on 1.43.

Kerr also got a 2-1 win in Georgia in that opening game but he had other problems back at Lansdowne Road. In that, his time in charge bucked a trend. For the most part, a fine away record has usually meant at least a play-off place.

It is no coincidence the three campaigns with the best returns on the road all resulted in qualification. They were Euro 2012 (2.2 points per game), 1994 (2 points) and 2002 (1.8).

That is the second reason why this match could be more telling than it appears, especially in a group that is so congested in the race for that second spot behind Germany.

Georgia are the sort of side who a mid-tier team should always beat at home, but who provide a much more awkward challenge on their own pitch. Gary Doherty can testify to that after some of the infamous incidents surrounding Kerr’s first game back in 2003. So, while a win tomorrow is obviously the aim, a draw would not be seen as a disaster.

It is that kind of thinking, however, which could be most costly.

Ireland have historically had a difficult time of it on such trips, and it was something that first Charlton and then Trapattoni did most to change. It made a difference in their most successful campaigns, as could be seen with Ireland’s 100% record away to Latvia, Lithuania and Albania in the lead up to USA 1994 — in contrast to third-place Denmark — and then victories in Armenia and Kazakhstan under Trapattoni.

Such matches are often forgotten amid the grander results, but they should not be.

You only have to look at how the costliest away games are easy to recall and have entered history in their own right: Poland 3-3 1991, Liechtenstein 0-0 1995, Macedonia 2-3 1997, Macedonia 0-0 1999.

This is where qualification campaigns can genuinely swing, as the two extra points have an exponential effect, particularly in terms of approach to more equal opposition. This is also where Roy Keane could be at his most beneficial as assistant manager.

One of the reasons that many teams struggle in such away matches is because the very circumstances cause a certain trepidation while simultaneously emboldening the opposition.

Keane has always demanded defiance of such external “noise”, and insisted on just fully focusing on the job at hand. It is clearly going to be the message alongside O’Neill’s team-talk tomorrow.

That was evident when the issue of whether a draw would be an acceptable result was put to Keane on the eve of the trip. “You never go into any game thinking about draws. Your instinct as a footballer, a coach or a manager — can you try and win the game you’re involved in? It depends how the game goes but the mindset is, and I know from the manager, the staff and the players — try and win.”

And when a relatively poor Irish win percentage on the road was put to him? “I don’t know,” Keane said. “Again, we could be chatting here all day and analysing it. The players who start on Sunday can’t worry about what’s gone on previously.”

That could be the key to actually replicating what has happened away to George previously, and ensuring O’Neill starts with a winning away record of his own.

A draw should not be acceptable. A different tone should be set right now.